直觉外科：Q1每股收益的几个宏观话题；Q1基本面可能更向好

A few macro topics into Q1 EPS; Q1 probmore good fundamentals Maintain Rating:BUY| PO:650.00 USD| Price:469.21 USD Key investor topics: metal tariffs, memory and JapanAfew topics have been coming up with investors ahead of ISRG’s Q1 earnings: 20 April 2026 Steel/aluminum tariffs, memory costs and Japan reimbursement. We don’t really seemuch impact (positive or negative) as we explain in this note. We think the focus on Q1call will be more about fundamentals (a positive update) and less on macro. We continueto see strong ISRG procedure growth in Q1 and think ISRG’s pipeline is underappreciated(see all our recent work on ISRG’s pipeline). We maintain our Buy rating. Equity Travis SteedResearch AnalystBofAS+1 404 607 3251travis.steed@bofa.com Stephanie ElghaziResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 4568stephanie.elghazi@bofa.com Section 232 steel/aluminum/coppertariffs strengthened In Early Aprilthe White House strengthened Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, andcopper. We don’t think this recent change in Metals Section 232 tariffs will be materialfor ISRG or medtech. We looked through the Annex file published by the White Houseand nothing was listed under HTSUS 9018 (where we think ISRG’s products are likelyclassified). We didn’t find other major medtech categories in the file either (HTSUS9019, 9021, 9022). Thus, we don’t see this having an impact on ISRG or medtech. Enjia CaoResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 743 9861enjia.cao@bofa.com Gracia MahoneyResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1136gracia.mahoney@bofa.com Japan reimbursement small; Japan unlikely a catalystWe found 7 new robotic procedure categories that are getting reimbursement in 2026 in Japan (total now 41). Full details inside. We looked at each Japan expansion and thislooks like a smaller year of expansion. We estimate this expansion is only 26k procedures(bilaterial inguinal hernia the biggest). This is small compared to 2018 when we estimate180k new procedures were reimbursed in Japan. This is more like the last few years (15kin 2024, 35k in 2022, 38k in 2020). Japan is around 4-5% of total ISRG procedures. Thecapital environment has been challenged in Japan with broad economic weakness andhospitals are under pressure from COVID funding roll off. This is unlikely to improve inthe near term. Procedure growth in Japan has been lagging the global average in 2H25from capital constraints. We don’t see Japan being a big new driver in 2026. Aidan LaheyResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 2590aidan.lahey@bofa.com Rei TanResearch AnalystBofAS646 556 1681rei.tan@bofa.com Memory reminder, prob not material either at this stage On memory prices, we had previously published on medtech inflation worries (See note:Inflation bringing back 2022 memories). We built a memory scenario model for ISRG.Despite the higher memory prices, and despite making some more drastic assumptions,we estimate only 10bps impact to ISRG's total company margins from higher memoryprices. We do not see memory prices at this stage to be material to ISRG's investmentthesis. See inside for details. I&A: instruments &accessoriesUSMCA: United States Mexico Canada AgreementHTSUS: Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the UnitedStates BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. Analyst Certification on page 8. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 8.12960611 iQprofileSMIntuitive Surgical Company SectorMedical Technology Company Description Intuitive Surgical is the soft tissue surgical robotics pioneerand market leader thatfirst received FDA clearance morethan 20 years ago. ISRG sells robotic systems andaccompanying instruments that can be used in a broadrange of surgical procedures. ISRG has a global installedbase of close to 8,000 robots. Investment Rationale Weexpect ISRG to deliver robust procedure growth in theUS and internationally as the company drives deeperpenetration across a broader range of surgical procedures.ISRG has a near monopoly globally on soft tissue surgicalrobotics today and we feel confident that the company hasadapted its business model and increased othercompetitive barriers to sustain robust growth even as newcompetitors potentially enter the market. Stock Data Average Daily Volume1,746,818 Steel/Aluminum 232 tariff change doesnot include medtech categories On April 2nd, the White House announced a change to the Section 232 tariffs onSteel/Aluminum/Copper. Importing products may require up to 50% tariffs on their fullvalue, instead of a duty base of just its metal content. We know that ISRG manufactures80% of its I&A products in Mexico and most of these are exempt from tariffs underUSMCA. However, Section 232 tariffs could potentially override USM