2026年第二季度比特币指南针

Q2 2026 Ronald-Peter StöferleMark J. Valek Table of Content: 1.News and Social Media2. Bitcoin3. Bitcoin Spot ETF4. Bitcoin On-Chain5.Bitcoin vs.Altcoins6. Bitcoin Treasury Companies7.Bitcoin Comparisons 1. News and Social Media “17 years after the white paper, the Bitcoin network is stilloperational and more resilient than ever. Bitcoin never shutsdown.” Scott Bessent News •Reuters,01/13/2026(EN):US senators introduce long-awaited bill to define crypto market rules(link)•Bloomberg,03/17/2026(EN):Bitcoin Surprises as Oasis of Calm While Iran War Jolts Markets(link)•Bloomberg,03/23/2026(EN):Strategy Seeks $42 Billion to Accelerate Bitcoin Buying (link)•Decrypt,03/26/2026(EN):MARA Stock Pops on $1.1 Billion Bitcoin Sale as BTC Miner Buys BackConvertible Debt(link)•Decrypt,03/26/2026(EN):Coinbase, Fannie Mae to Enable Crypto-Backed Mortgages(link)•Financial Times,03/27/2026(EN):Tether hires KPMG as auditor ahead of US expansion(link)•Decrypt,03/31/2026(EN):Google Quantum Paper Boosts Odds of Bitcoin ‘Q-Day’ by 2032,Researchers Warn(link)•The Block,03/31/2026(EN):Interactive Brokers launches crypto trading in EEA, including BTC, ETH,SOL and XRP(link) Social Media René will Rendite,02/08/2026(DE)DER KOLLAPS! Wie es bei Gold undBitcoin weitergeht / Interview mit MarkValek Swan Bitcoin,03/05/2026(EN)Did the Federal Reserve Just Open theDoor to Bitcoin? What Bitcoin Did,02/25/2026(EN)Dollar Dominance vs Bitcoin: WhatHappens Next | Brent Johnson Bitcoin For Corporations und BitcoinMagazine,02/25/2026(EN)Michael Saylor's Strategy World 2026 Keynote: Digital Credit 2. Bitcoin “Nothing stops this train… Because it’s the opposite. Scarce,decentralized, and mathematically capped… Bitcoin is themirror of this system–and the best protection from it.” Lyn Alden Bitcoin Performance Triangle (USD), in %, Q1/2020–Q1/2026 Bitcoin in Various Developed Market Currencies below All-Time High,03/31/2026 Bitcoin in Various Emerging Market Currencies below All-Time High,03/31/2026 Bitcoin (log), in USD, 01/2011–03/2026Profitable vs. Unprofitable Entry Points Bitcoin Price Trajectory After Past Halvings (Indexed to 2024 HalvingPrice of USD 64,773 on April 20th, log), 11/2012–03/2026 Bitcoin, in USD, 01/2011–03/2026 InfoBox: Halving Effects Bitcoin (log, lhs), in USD, and M2 (US, EU, JP, CN, GB, CH) (3 monthlead, rhs), in USD trn, 01/2015–05/2026 3. Spot Bitcoin ETFs “Bitcoin ETFs are poised for significant expansion, with thepotential to triple the asset base of gold ETFs in the nextthree to five years… Gold took over a decade to get there.Bitcoin ETFs have done it in months.” Eric Balchunas Cumulative Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows (lhs), in USD bn, and Bitcoin Price(rhs), in USD, 01/2024–03/2026 4. Bitcoin On-Chain “You personally have agency. Run a node. Spend in it. Youdon’t have to wait for anyone or ask for permission. You canjust go.” Jeff Booth Bitcoin Total Hash Rate (lhs), in TH/s, and Bitcoin (rhs), in USD,01/2017–03/2026 Lightning Network Capacity, in Bitcoin (lhs), and in USD mn (rhs),01/2018–03/2026 5.Bitcoinvs. Altcoins “I think people would rather have hard money that is notprivate, over easy money that is private.” Saifedean Ammous Market Capitalization of the Top 10 Cryptocurrencies, in USD bn,03/31/2026 6.Bitcoin Treasury Companies “Clarity comes at the moment you realize that Bitcoin iscapital: perfect capital, programmable and incorruptiblecapital.” Michael Saylor Bitcoin Holdings of Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies, in BTC,03/31/2026 Bitcoin Holdings of Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies, in BTC,03/31/2026 Strategy Inc. Common Stock (MSTR) vs. Preferred Stocks (100 =25/07/2025), 07/2025–03/2026 7.Bitcoin Comparisons “Bitcoin will be a great hedge… Gold has its role, but in aworld of monetary stimulus and fiscal expansion, Bitcoin’sfixed supply and decentralized nature give it a leg up.” Paul Tudor Jones Market Capitalization of Bitcoin vs. Various Assets and Central BankBalance Sheets, in USD bn, 03/31/2026 Weekly 6-Month Rolling Correlation of Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100,01/2011–03/2026 Weekly 6 Month Rolling Correlation of a 60/40 Portfolio and a Portfolio of 1/3Gold, 1/3 Silver, and 1/3 Bitcoin, 01/2015–03/2026 Distribution of Weekly Logarithmic Returns of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin,08/2010–03/2026 Market Cap of Bitcoin and Gold (lhs), in USD trn, and Bitcoin/GoldMarket Cap Ratio (rhs), 01/2013–03/2026 Gold Stock* (lhs), in Tonnes, and Bitcoin Stock (rhs), in Coins,01/2010–01/2030 Gold Stock* (lhs), in Tonnes, and Bitcoin Stock (rhs), in Coins,1900–2030e Addendum Because we care… About our Clients.About Society.About theFuture. Mark J. Valek •Partner at Incrementum AGPortfolio Management and Research •StudiedBusiness Administration and Finance in Vienna•Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and CertifiedPorftolioManager (CPM) •Since2013,authoroftheIn GoldWeTrustReport •Publicationofthebestseller"Austrian SchoolforInvestors"(2014)•Founderof"PhiloroEdelme