Incrementum增量比特币指南针

Q2 2025 Ronald-Peter StöferleMark J. Valek Table of Content: 1.News and Social Media2. Bitcoin3. Bitcoin Spot ETF4. Bitcoin On-Chain5.Bitcoin vs.Altcoins6.Bitcoin Comparisons 1. News and Social Media Donald Trump News •Decrypt, 01/24/2025 (EN):SEC Rescinds Controversial Crypto Accounting Rule, Signals Regulatory Shift (link)•Bloomberg, 03/07/2025 (EN):Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Disappoints Market, Weighs on Crypto(link)•Fair Observer, 03/11/2025 (EN):Donald Trump Pardons Libertarian Idealist and Silk Road Founder RossUlbricht(link)•Bloomberg, 03/11/2025 (EN):How Will the US Bitcoin Reserve Work, Exactly?(link)•Cryptoslate, 03/21/2025 (EN):IMF updates global standards to include crypto in balance of payments (link)•Bloomberg, 03/25/2025 (EN):GameStop Adopts Policy to Buy Bitcoin, Joining Other Firms(link)•Mining.com, 03/25/2025 (EN):US could use gold reserves to buy bitcoin, White House official says(link)•Reuters, 03/25/2025 (EN):BlackRock launches first bitcoin product in Europe(link)•Bloomberg, 03/28/2025 (EN):Trump Pardons BitMEX Crypto Exchange Co-Founder Arthur Hayes(link)•Reuters, 03/30/2025 (EN):Japan to give crypto assets legal status as financial products, Nikkei says(link) Social Media CoinMarketCap, 01/13/2025(EN)CMC Crypto Yearbook 2024-25 The White House, 03/07/2025(EN)President Trump Delivers Remarks atthe White House Digital Assets Summit PlanB, 03/03/2025(EN)PlanB Bitcoin Analysis March 2025 Cointelegraph, 03/21/2025(EN)Why Bitcoin’s Price Could Go Parabolic | Michael Saylor speech 2. Bitcoin “A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could strengthen our nationalfinancial security and embrace the future of currency.” Senator Cynthia Lummis Bitcoin Performance Triangle (USD), in %, Q1/2019–Q1/2025 Bitcoin (log), in USD, 01/2011–03/2025Profitable vs. Unprofitable Entry Points Bitcoin Post US Presidential Election Behaviour (log), in USD,01/2011–03/2025 Bitcoin Price Trajectory After Past Halvings (Indexed to 2024 HalvingPrice of USD 64,773 on April 20th, log), 11/2012–03/2025 Bitcoin, in USD, 01/2011–03/2025 Halving#1:Start: 11/28/2012, 12.35High: 12/04/2013, 1,151.17Low: 11/28/2012, 12.35Close: 07/08/2016, 662.97 InfoBox: •Thisgraphillustratestheevolutionofthe Bitcoinprice,whichisexponentialduetotheshortageofsupplythatoccurseveryfouryearsafter ahalving. Halving Effects Distribution of Bitcoin Holdings, as a % of Total Supply, 03/31/2025 3. Spot Bitcoin ETFs “When someone tries to buy all the world’s supply of ascarce asset, the more they buy the higher the price goes.” Satoshi Nakamoto Cumulative Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows (lhs), in USD bn, and Bitcoin Price(rhs), in USD, 01/2024–03/2025 4. Bitcoin On-Chain “Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess ofwisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growingever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encryptedenergy.” Michael Saylor Bitcoin Total Hash Rate (lhs), in TH/s, and Bitcoin (rhs), in USD,01/2017–03/2025 Lightning Network Capacity, in Bitcoin (lhs), and in USD mn (rhs),01/2018–03/2025 5.Bitcoinvs. Altcoins “We believe bitcoin is an asset class itself. It is an alternativeto other commodities like gold.” Larry Fink Market Capitalization of the Top 10 Cryptocurrencies, in USD bn,03/31/2025 6. Bitcoin Comparisons “I think all roads lead to inflation. I’m long gold, I’m longbitcoin, I think commodities are so ridiculously under-ownedso I’m long commodities. And I own zero fixed income.” Paul Tudor Jones Market Capitalization of Bitcoin vs. Various Assets and Central BankBalance Sheets, in USD bn, 03/31/2025 Weekly 6-Month Rolling Correlation of Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100,07/2011–03/2025 Weekly 6 Month Rolling Correlation of a 60/40 Portfolio and a Portfolio of(1/3) Gold, (1/3) Silver, and (1/3) Bitcoin, 03/2011–03/2025 Distribution of Weekly Logarithmic Returns of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin,08/2010–03/2025 Market Capitalization of Bitcoin and Gold (lhs), in USD trn, andBitcoin/Gold Market Cap Ratio (rhs), 01/2013–03/2025 Gold Stock* (lhs), in Tonnes, and Bitcoin Stock (rhs), in Coins,01/2010–01/2030 Gold Stock* (lhs), in Tonnes, and Bitcoin Stock (rhs), in Coins,1900–2030e Addendum Because we care… About our Clients.About Society.About theFuture. Mark J. Valek •Partner at Incrementum AGPortfolio Management and Research •StudiedBusiness Administration and Finance in Vienna•Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and CertifiedPorftolioManager (CPM) •Since2013,authoroftheIn GoldWeTrustReport •Publicationofthebestseller"Austrian SchoolforInvestors"(2014)•Founderof"PhiloroEdelmetalle GmbH" Ronald-Peter Stöferle •Managing Partner of Incrementum AGResearch and Portfolio Management •Studied Business Administration and Finance in Vienna and at the University ofIllinois•Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Certified Financial Technician (CFT) •ErsteGroup Research 2006–2012•Fund manager•Incrementum Inflation Diversifier Fund•Incrementum Digital & Physical Gold Fund•Incrementum Cry