铁塔：街谈巷议...关于我们铁塔覆盖的顶级投资者反馈（第三部分，共三部分）

Towers: Word on the Street...top investor feedback on our towerinitiations (Part 3 of 3) coverage onthethreepublic towernames:CCI(OP,$102),AMT(MP, $205),andSBAC(MP,hithardbyrates,structuralchurn,and limitednear-termoptimism,thoughthere'salittlebitofsparklefromSBAC salereports.Sincelaunching,we'vespoken with7O+investors,thecompany,andour industrycontacts andcollecteda series ofthetopfeedbackandquestions: +19173448622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com +1 917 344 8545nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com again?Arethere anygrowthtriggers?Alas, not much.Upside could come froma Dish remedy,potential take-private(s?), or maybe very slight overachievementon amendments,but we're not enthusiastic,beyondsomepotentialon improved CClexecution. conviction?Moderate.We feel good about CCI's ability to improve EBITDAmargins from67-70% over the nextfewyears,once the company has shed its fiber+small cell businesses,as wellas the obvious abilityto bring leveragedown and start abuyback program.Bumping rentsat renewal in this environment is a tougher ask (definite opportunity with AT&T in 2028,potential with other carriers 2027-9)-we stil like CCl's odds, but it's far from a slam dunk. What happens nowwithSBAC giventhetake-privatereports?Is CCIthenexttarget?As we've written, we think SBAC has a relatively high likelihood of transacting - buyer incentives are strong (diversify away from data centers), the potential buyers look credible(suspectedtobeKKR+Brookfield),andthecompanybehaviorisconsistent with a sale(canceled conferences, not taking analyst calls, etc.).Theoretically CCl could also be aninfra target after divestiture if valuations remain low - it'd be another very large deal todigest forthe same buyer set. Areyouconcerned about riskfromspace-based solutions?Should Iworryabouttherural-exposedtowercompanies?We're not remotely concerned. In our view, directto device won't cannibalize terrestrial networks - it's an“and",not an "or"-the only credible solution provider's behavior hasreinforced this. If anything, in a world where we have the potential for a fourth scaledwireless provider (we are very skeptical, but we'll humor you) - it's upside for the towernames. We'llconcede headline risk, but froma techperspective, we're not worried. Towers continue to be depressed, and wedon't think we're necessarilyatthebottom from a fundamental or industryperspective.If youdefinitelywanttobe inthe space,we like CCIfortheturnaround story.We maintainour Outperform,thoughweareeyeswide openaboutthe execution risks.Wealso liketheoptionality inthecasethattheSBACtransactionoccurs.AMTremainsaqualitycompounder,butwithout a lot of unpriced upside in the near-term. overhangs. carrier exposure,andvisible catalysts into2027-2029.Our $102 pricetarget is based on 19.5x our 2027EAFF0 per share of$5.41. THEREANYGROWTHTRIGGERS?Historically,we've seen a fewtypes of triggers for the tower industry large-scale coverage builds,increased capacity requirements,spectrumauctions (couldbeusedforcoverage orcapacity),macrofactors (risk rotation,loweringofrates),andindustry-wide structural changes.None of those are anticipated in the immediate near-term: builds with new generational deployments (LTE/5G/6G), but they're diminishing with time and 6G isn't expected until~2030.Capacityrequirementsarereal,andmobiledemandkeepsincreasing,butwe'renotcurrentlyinacapacitycrisis. This tendsto come in wavesbetween rounds of spectrumdeployments,leading to increasesin colocations-thisphaseisunlikely to start again for at least a couple of years. the3.45GHz+600MHzthatDish soldtoAT&T,anAWS-3re-auction in June 2026 (also remnants from Dish),and an upperC-Band auction in 2027.Thefirst two of those buckets are likely to trigger a smallamount of amendment activity,but aremany non-contiguous chunks and likely adjacent to existing carrier holdings -not a major market move. The 2027 auctionwill be bigger, but has a 5.5year clearing window, so is outside of our forecast period. don't anticipate a dramatic shifting of that tide in thenear future.These stocks are notoriously sensitive to rate swingsandthe lastmonth has reinforced thatpattern. all tower contracts and not building a fourth U.S. network. All carriers have stripped Dish from their go-forward numbers,so perhaps there's someupsidewitha remedy,buthard toknowwhen or howmuch that could be.There is also talk andpotential fora theoretical new entrant, though not something we'd plan on today. Towervaluationsareabsolutelylow (with SBAC asthe exception,giventheirrecent spike),butwe'renotsurewe'veseenthebottomgivenweareatleastayearoutfromanymeaningfulgrowthtriggersfortheindustryandcontinuedinstabilityin macro. Source: Bloomberg as of 14 April 26, Bernstein Analysis and Estimates wecan get).Here's whatthenew Pixarmovie, Hoppers, gotright and wrong about towers:What Pixar got right: They sometimes come in theform of stealth pine trees (see p.35 of our initiation and Exhibit2) What Pixar got wrong: Despite some bad PR, we're pretty sur