石油服务：2025年下半年行业现状 - 过去时代的终极黑白照片（2026年2月结束）

0il Services: State of the business in 2H25 - The ultimate black &white photo of a past era (that ended in Feb. 2026) companies in our sample of 48 firms having reported their FY25 earnings in March 2026, wecan now publish our bi-annual State of the Business report. As usual, our approach remainsmight now have entered a totally new era in March 2026, intellectual honesty forces us toadmitthatthisparticularreportmayrapidlybecomeobsolete!Youmaythereforereadastheultimateblack&whitephotoofapastera. +33142136229guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com +4420 77621851luis-fernando.sarmiento@bernsteinsg.com +19173448422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com continuationof1H25asitshowedlittletonomarkedinflection.2)Wenonethelessnotedaslightsequentialdeterioration in2H25,which washowever sufficienttomorethanoffsetthetraditionalpositiveseasonalitygenerallyobservedinthesecondhalfoftheyear.3)This mild 2H25 deterioration nonetheless coincided with a gradually improving outlookfor2026-27,as highlighted bySLB, Tenaris and Saipem in their 3Q25(Oct.25)and4Q25(Jan.-Feb. 26) earnings calls. Specialist Sales +44 20 7762 5256gareth.b.wiliams@bernsteinsg.com En masse.From Oct. 25 to Feb.26, and for the very first time since 2013,investors startedtorespondenmassetoan improving2026outlook.Asa result,thesectorEV/revenueratiojumped from 1.33x(Oct. 25) to 1.62x (Feb. 26) and is now 1.92x (Apr. 26), i.e. now above its20-year average of 1.67x. Investors were finally recognising that the prolonged, solid anddisciplined upcycle, which had emerged as early as 2H21, was still in play. A new era since March2026.We are now entering a new era (=war in Iran + re-use ofoil as a political weapon), which may now exhibit three totally new characteristics: 1) ST- a re-correlation of the entire sector with changes in oil price; 2) ST to MT - a potentialrebound in US OFS; 3) MT to LT - likely structurally higher inflation across supply chains.On the negative side,this may translate into higher volatility (for all Oil Services stocks) andrising risks of cost over-runs (mainly for E&C companies). On the positive side, we view it asadditional and structural good news for the entire sector (including E&Cs) as it comes ontopof an already very constructivebackground (=superior financial health+9o% of E&Pspendingbeing allocatedto maintaining production+renewed need for exploration+newoffshore basins with low breakeven prices). Super-cycle.We are now envisaging a potential 1970s-style super-cycle: War/destruction→high oil/gas prices→increase in US0&G capex (+10% in 2H26-1H27?)→increasingCAGRupto 2029-30?)→Middle East reconstruction (+10%CAGRup to2034?) Which stocks to favour? This new environment is supportive for stocks directly exposedto the following themes: 1) production; 2) short-term durations (business cycles of 6-18months); 3) stronger exposure to North America than to the Middle East; and 4) short-termpricing power. In our view, the Oil Field Services (OFS) companies -rather than Engineering&Construction (E&C)companies-offerthe bestprofile.WethereforefavourSLB,Viridien,Vallourec andTenaris. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Weremainpositive across our entire universeas we expect additional new investors to come to the space.We wouldnonetheless favour stocks directly exposed to thefollowing themes: 1)production of energy; 2)relatively short-term durations(business cycles of 6-18 months); 3) stronger exposure to North America than to the Middle East; and 4) short-term pricingpower. In our view,the Oil Field Services (OFS) companies -rather than Enginering &Construction (E&C) companies -offerthebestprofile.WethereforefavourSLB,Viridien,Vallourecand Tenaris. The ultimateblackand white photo ofa past era (whichended inFeb.26).Methodology.....8State of the business 2H25 (1): The oil services industry is in a super strong financial situation...10Stateof thebusiness 2H25(2):Thegapbetween InternationalandUSOILservices companies continues towiden......19Stateof thebusiness2H25 (3):Valuationdoes notshow"irrational exuberance'.....21Signals from the ground: Oil production, rig count, DUcS.22Signals from the Dallas FED survey.. DETAILS RESEARCHREPORTS27March2026:Vallourec:Best idea for2Q26: Inflection point inNorthAmerica.PT raised to29.0 (vs23.6).Wenow stand4%/15%/11%abovecons.25 March 2026: Global Oil Services: Unleashing the wolf. Oil Services market shares in the Middle East. A 1970s-style super-Cycle seems likely.19 March 2026: Tenaris: 0perating leverage ahead?11 March 2026: SLB: Middle East - Deciphering the new,new, environment. All eyes on Friday's US rig count. PT increased to$56.1 (vs $52.3).09March2026:Viridien:A'fewextrapennies.Risk/reward is improvingagain.PTlifted to163 (vs117)20February2026:Bernstein Energy&Power:Reshaping the Oil Services industry (Part. 4)-The quiet beauty of sleepless nights(2030-35)19 January2026:Global Oil Services:Our2026outlook in9slides12January 2026:Global Oil Services:2026 outlook-13 themes:Timefor investors to'stomp out their cigaret