亚太地区的绿色钢铁需求机会

Asia-Pacific’s Green SteelDemand Opportunity Analyzing East and Southeast Asian demand for near-zero emissions steel in 2030 Authors and Acknowledgments Authors Kyle Clark-SuttonAriane DesrosiersThanh HaMaeve MastersonRachel Wilmoth Authors are listed alphabetically. All authors are from RMI unless otherwise noted. Contacts Ariane Desrosiers,ariane.desrosiers@rmi.orgThanh Ha,tha@rmi.org Copyrights and Citation Ariane Desrosiers, Thanh Ha, Maeve Masterson, Rachel Wilmoth, and Kyle Clark-Sutton,Asia-Pacific’sGreen Steel Demand Opportunity, RMI, 2026,https://rmi.org/insight/asia-pacifics-green-steel-demand-opportunity. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images are courtesy of iStock.com unless otherwise noted. About RMI Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access to affordableclean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’s livelihoods. RMIis active in over 50 countries. Table of Contents APAC Green Steel Demand Potential6 Overview of regional steel demand growth6Potential green steel demand from the private sector8Existing low-carbon steel offtake agreements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Potential steel demand from the public sector10 APAC Supply Landscape13 Overview of supply landscape13Clean steel supply landscape14Green steel premiums18Existing emissions standards and certifications in region19Policy landscape20 Insights from the Market: Challenges to MaterializingGreen Steel Demand22 Demand-side challenges22Supply-side challenges23 Opportunities for Public and Private-Sector Action24 Steel buyers24Steel producers25Governments26 Appendices28 Appendix ADescription of methodology28Private demand sizing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28Public demand sizing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30Premium pass-through. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30Appendix BPolicy details30Appendix CSupplier details32 Endnotes34 Main Takeaways •Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand (focus APAC countries)are large producers and consumers of steel with rapid growth in demand (projected at 241 million tons(Mt) in 2030). •These countries represent a large potential for near-zero emissions steel demand, with an initialestimate of 6.1 Mt in 2030 from private corporates. This volume could be met by three to four greenfieldsteel plants. •Pioneering green steel offtake is emerging in the region, with recent deals representing approximately25,000 tons in announced volumes. However, most deals have used Japanese mass-balanced greensteel products, which do not incentivize deep sector decarbonization. •Public steel demand, estimated at 38.2 million tons per annum (Mtpa), has significant potential to builda sizable green market in the region; shifting some of these public steel procurement volumes to meetnational emissions targets could add another 11.5 Mtpa in green demand volume. •The projected pipeline of clean steel supply (2.5 Mt) will not be able to meet estimated regionaldemand (6.1 and potentially up to 17.6 Mt by 2030). This gap creates opportunities for new cleansupplies, some of which could be met by green iron sourced from cost-competitive regions likeAustralia to complement domestic production. •Several barriers make it challenging for green steel transactions to materialize. Buyers face supplychain complications, unclear product definitions and standards, and premiums for near-zero emissionssteel products. Demand aggregation mechanisms such as the Sustainable Steel Buyers’ Platform canhelp buyers overcome some of these challenges. •Government actions and public incentives are critical to scaling the green steel market in this region. Acombination of supply-side and demand-side incentives, coupled with stringent emissions standards,is needed to unlock demand at scale and support the development of first-of-a-kind clean technologyprojects. Introduction As the biggest steel producing and consuming region, Asia-Pacific (APAC) is key to transitioning the globalsteel industry to clean energy. To stay competitive amid growing climate policy regimes and consumer-driven demand for green produc