纯碱周报：需求支撑有限，供给端主导纯碱行情。

期货研究报告 2026年4月19日 商品研究 报告内容摘要: 走势评级：纯碱——震荡 供应端：周度产量环比增加，总量高于去年同期；重碱周度产量与去年相持平，轻碱周度产量仍高于同期。 ###—###研究员从业资格证号：需求端：浮法玻璃周产量小幅回升，光伏玻璃周产量继续下行，总量增加忽略不及，核心需求对纯碱支撑相对较弱；碳酸锂71.09%开工率，对纯碱价格形成一定支撑但有限；需求整体偏弱格局不改。 张秀峰—化工研究员从业资格证号：Z0011152投资咨询证号：F0289189联系电话：0571-28132619邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 投资咨询证号：库存端：周度库存小幅回升，库存依然高位（187.94万吨）。 联系电话：邮箱：成本利润：上周纯碱联碱法生产成本上行，氨碱法亏损走扩，联碱法利润小幅走缩，整体影响不大。 核心观点：当前纯碱供给宽松，重碱需求偏弱，轻碱需求依托碳酸锂需求对冲重碱需求减量但有限，库存仍处于高点。供需偏弱格局限制其上涨空间，同时因氨碱法长期亏损，联碱法处于生产成本附近，整体下行空间有限，整体以震荡对待。 操作建议：纯碱整体以震荡为主，周内考虑先抑后扬。 风险点：玻璃冷修超预期（利空），煤炭价格大幅波动（影响纯碱成本）。 信达期货有限公司CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼邮编：311200 目录 一、行情回顾.....................................................................................................................................................4二、期现结构&价差.........................................................................................................................................5三、供给..............................................................................................................................................................5四、需求..............................................................................................................................................................6五、库存..............................................................................................................................................................8六、成本&利润.................................................................................................................................................9 表目录 表1：纯碱期现&价差...........................................................................................................................................3表2：纯碱供需结构..............................................................................................................................................3表3：纯碱成本......................................................................................................................................................3表4：纯碱利润......................................................................................................................................................3表5：纯碱库存......................................................................................................................................................3 图目录 图1：纯碱主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图2：玻璃主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图3：纯碱主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图4：玻璃主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图5：纯碱月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图6：玻璃月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图7：纯碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图8：重碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图9：轻重比........................................................................................................................................................6图10：纯碱周损失量（万吨）..........................................................................................................................6图11：重碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图12：轻碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图13：玻璃厂内库存（万重量箱）....................................................................................................................6图14：玻璃厂内总库存（万重量箱）...............................................................................................................6图15：浮法玻璃生产成本（元/吨）.................................................................................................................7图16：浮法玻璃利润（元/吨）........................................................................................................................7图17：浮法玻璃开工率（%）...........................................................................................................................7图18：浮法玻璃日熔量（吨）.........................................................................................................................7图19：光伏玻璃开工率（%）...........................................................................................................................7图20：光伏玻璃日熔量（吨）.....