通胀再膨胀背景下增长加速

Chief Economist+852-22036139Deyun Ou reality inthefirstfewmonthsof2026.Today'sQ1GDPreleasedeliveredanotherimportantmessage:thisisnotstagflation,asChina'seconomyisalsoexpandinginquantityamidstpriceincreases.Thisdoesnotsurpriseus,aswelongbelievedthatareturntohealthypriceincreaseswill benefitheeconomyasawholeratherthansuppressingdemand.Highernominal growthcouldimproveChinese corporatesrevenueandprofitability,furthersupportingtherecoveryofinvestmentandhouseholdincome. Economist+852-22036166 China'seconomicgrowthinQ12026exceededexpectations.RealGDPgrowthrose from4.5%YoY inQ4to5.0%YoY inQ1,surpassingmarket expectations(consensus:4.8%,DB:4.6%).Quarterly GDPgrowthalso increased to 1.3%QoQ(5.3%annualized).Ourestimates suggest sequential growthhasacceleratedto4.7%YoY in Jan-Feb and furtherto 5.3%in March.Domestic investment andexports (See our latest view on2026 exports:Chinese Exporter March AHEAD)were the primary drivers of economic growth.The property sector also showedpositive signs. More importantly,China's nominal economicgrowthis accelerating ata fastpace.Nominal GDP growth reached 4.9% in Q1, an increase of 1.1percentagepoints from the previous quarter,and significantlyhigherthan the average growthrate of 4%overthepasttwoyears.Underthetriple superposition ofanti-involution,a globalheavyassetinvestmentcycle,and energy shocks,Chinesemanufacturingisrapidlyemergingfromdeflation.Weexpecta sustainedimprovementinChineseenterprises'revenueand profitability,whichis likelytofurther supporttherecoveryof investmentandemploymentinthecomingperiod. Weareupgradingour forecastforChina's2026 real GDPgrowth to4.9%(+0.4percentagepoints),primarilyreflectingbetter-than-expectedexternaldemandandsigns of stabilization in the real-estate sector. Following this adjustment, ournominal GDP growth forecast rises to 6.5%, reaching its highest level since 2022and significantlyabovethe 4.5%average of thepast four years.The2027GDPgrowth forecast is also upgraded to 4.5% (+0.2 percentage points). In a higherBrentoil scenario (avg.UsD100/bbl in2026),weanticipategrowthwill remainrobust at 4.7%, though CPl inflation would likely rise further to 1.8%. China Macro seasonality,while investmentremained strong. Industrial-production growth dropped by 0.6ppts to 5.7%YoY.The laterChinese NewYearthisyearsignificantlydisrupted exports and productioninMarch.However,theybothsawhighergrowthinQ1comparedtoQ4lastyear. Considering the rapid rebound in PPl, nominal industrial growthwould be even stronger.Additionally,capacity utilization rebounded by0.27ppt to 74.1% in Q1. Despite seasonality, auto manufacturingacceleratedby4pptto7.5%YoY,and shipbuildingmaintaineda high levelof13.3%YoY,suggestingexceptionallystrongexternaldemandforthesetwo sectors.Oil and gas extraction and chemical products also sawsignificant growth,accelerating by 3.6ppt and 2.4ppt respectivelycompared to Jan-Feb, mainly due to rising crude oil prices.. Services output fell by 0.2ppt to 5.0%YoY.This was primarily due to thedecelerationoftourismandentertainmentafterthe holidays,andreducedcapital market activity due to geopolitical risks.IcT services furtheracceleratedduetotheinfluence ofAgenticAl.Leasingand businessservices increased by 2ppt to 10% YoY, indicating further recovery inbusinesssentiment. Retail sales declined by1.1pptto1.7%YoY.There were threemain drags:dining (-1.9ppt from Jan-Feb),food (-0.7ppt),and tobacco and alcohol (-12ppt)slowed downafter theholiday;car sales continued to fall afterchanges in subsidy policies (-3.5ppt); and jewelry sales (-1.7ppt) sloweddown in March dueto declining preciousmetalprices.On thepositive side,driven by Al, culturaland office supplies (mainly computers and servers)and communication equipment grew by 15%YoY and 27% YoYrespectively,eachacceleratingby10pptcomparedto Jan-Feb. Fixed-asset investment stayed strong.Supported by governmentprojects, infrastructure investment remained at a high level of 7.2% YoY,with a cumulative growth rate of 8.9% in Q1. Manufacturing-investmentgrowthbuckedseasonal interferenceandacceleratedby1.8pptto4.9%YoY,possiblyinfluencedbyimprovementindomesticandexternaldemandand pre-emptive inventory building due to high oil prices. Real-estateinvestment stayed flat at-11.3%YoY. China Macro Source :Deutsche Bank Research, NBS Thepropertysectorshowedbroad-basedimprovementinQ1.Thedownwardtrendinhousingpricescontinuedtomoderate,withaparticularlyencouragingsignin top-tier cities,which registered a 0.2%MoMprice increase in March-a turningpoint afterayearofdeclines.Onthe activityfront,investment sawthemostsignificant rebound, soaring20%fromQ42025.New-home sales experiencedamodest3%rise,butthesecondaryhomemarketshowedmorerobustgrowth,withsalesin20cities reachingaone-yearhighin March.Newconstructionstartslargelyheld steadythroughoutQ1. China Macro Incomeroseby5%YoYinQ1,slightlyhigherthan the4.5%and4.8%inQ3andQ4lastyear.Businessincomewasabrightspot,surgingby6.6%toreacha2-yearhighthat was 1.5ppt higher than 2025 growth. It