茅台：第一季度预览及模型更新

Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Hao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com Mufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 600519.CH 1,950.00 CNY(2,050.00OLD) Moutai: Q1 preview and model update Following Moutai’s major Q4 inventory correction, we have raised our Q1 revenue estimateto -4% from -12% to reflect the amount of pain already taken in Q4 2025. We see a strong setup for a return to growth in Q2 (+5%) with the 9% March 31stFetien ex-factoryprice increase hitting the financials, Fetien sales via iMoutai, and the launch of Moutai’sconsignment sales model for non-standard Fetien variants. With the inventory correctionover, channel pivot well under way, and easier comps, we expect H2 revenues to accelerateto mid to high teens, bringing FY26 revenue growth in at 7.5% and EPS just shy of 10%. We see a number of ups and downs for Moutai’s Q1 print due on Friday, with RMB26b ofupside from the launch of Fetien 500ml via iMoutai at a 28% higher ex-factory price than thedistributor channel, offset by the impact of this quota being sourced from distributors, non-standard Fetien sell in dropping to zero in Q1 in anticipation of the consignment sales modellaunched last week, and OLS sales down further 15%. Overall, we expect the positive mixreflected in our -vs LSD Moutai revenue estimate to result in broadly stable margins yoy. Investment Implications We rate Moutai Outperform with aPT of RMB1,950from RMB2,050 after reducing ourEPS estimates by 3-5% to reflect the Q4 2025 miss, and rolling forward our valuation baseby one quarter (model), while maintaining our target multiple. DETAILS EXHIBIT 1:We expect Q1 revenues to come in -4%yoy, with the iMoutai Fetien launch offset by high-end culling andOLS declines EXHIBIT 2:We have raised our Q1 and Q4 2026 growth estimates to reflect the impact of greater than expectedhigh-end inventory reductions in Q4 2025 Q4 RESULTS DIGEST Moutai’s Q4 revenue was down 19% yoy, 10% below our estimate and 22% below consensus, with the non-standard Fetieninventory correction more aggressive than we expected and, hence, better than hoped. Since Moutai’s verbal intervention in lateNovember, Wholesale prices of these high-end products have recovered by c. 15-30%, and today’s print gives us increasedconfidence that Q1 (due next week) will mark the end of inventory correction. Direct sales revenues grew 27% in Q4, rising to72% of total sales from 40% in Q3 and approaching our 76% estimate for FY26 as a whole, indicating the company actuallykicked off theirRTM pivotwell before the official announcement. A 58% decline in distribution channel revenue was the main driver of the Q4 top line weakness, but half of this was offset by thepivot to Direct sales, and iMoutai, which still only sold high end Fetien variants during the period, saw revenue down 94% YoY inQ4. Moutai really seems to have cleaned house in Q4. In Q1, we expect iMoutai revenues to benefit from the launch of 500ml Fetien (see: Moutai's major i-Moutai pivot) but to remainweak overall given that the consignment model for non-standard Fetien variants was only launched earlier this week. On top ofconsignment upside, Q2 stands to benefit from the 9% Fetien ex-factory price increase put through on March 31st. OLS revenue was down by 17% YoY in Q4, moderating from Q3’s 34% decline, and this drove slightly negative segment mixin the quarter and, overall, Moutai OP declined 30% in Q4. Moutai finished FY25 with a 1% revenue decline, against the +9%guidance issued in April 2025, and the company have not announced guidance for FY26. Moutai’s Full year dividend payout ratio came in at 79%, 4%pct higher than FY24, and implying a 3.5% yield. EXHIBIT 10:OLS revenue decline narrowed to 17% yoy in the quarter when Fetien slid into decline, driven by thenon-standard variant inventory correction EXHIBIT 17:We are 1% below EPS consensus this year but4% above in FY27 APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to