期货眼·日迹：每日早盘观察

每 日早 盘 观 察 每日早盘观察 目录 金融衍生品 股指期货：停火预期将助力行情....................................................................................................................4国债期货：关注资金面边际变化与风偏波动................................................................................................5 农产品 蛋白粕：供应整体宽松价格仍有压力..........................................................................................................6白糖：国际糖价下跌国内糖价抗跌..............................................................................................................6油脂板块：油脂维持震荡运行........................................................................................................................8玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面高位震荡...................................................................................................8生猪：供应压力减少价格继续偏强..............................................................................................................9花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡..................................................................................................10鸡蛋：鸡蛋现货价格偏强养殖利润好转....................................................................................................11苹果：新果季有增产预期苹果期货易跌难涨............................................................................................12棉花-棉纱：外棉价格强势内外价差缩小...................................................................................................12 黑色金属 钢材：钢材基本面边际好转，钢价延续震荡偏强走势..............................................................................14双焦：底部有支撑，可逢低做多远月..........................................................................................................14铁矿：供应扰动再起，矿价震荡运行..........................................................................................................15铁合金：需求有压力，成本存支撑..............................................................................................................16 有色金属 贵金属：谈判仍存争议贵金属震荡运行....................................................................................................17铜：短期关注上方压力..................................................................................................................................18氧化铝：基本面变动有限现货价格下跌.....................................................................................................19电解铝：霍尔木兹海峡通航情况扩大内外盘铝价波动..............................................................................19铸造铝合金：地缘冲突局势再现反转..........................................................................................................20锌：逢低轻仓试多..........................................................................................................................................20铅：逢高分批布局空单..................................................................................................................................21 镍：中东局势反复，整体偏强运行..............................................................................................................22不锈钢：成本支撑，跟随镍价运行..............................................................................................................23工业硅：多单及时兑现收益..........................................................................................................................23多晶硅：盘面或二次探底，多单离场..........................................................................................................24碳酸锂：累库放缓助推锂价上行..................................................................................................................24锡：海峡再度关闭，锡价波动加大..............................................................................................................25 航运及碳排放 集运：伊朗拒绝参加第二轮会谈，霍尔木兹海峡通行依旧受阻..............................................................27干散货运价：中东地缘政治冲突再度升级，散货市场租金上涨或将难以长时间持续..........................28碳排放：中国碳市场交易活跃度有所提高，欧盟碳市场价格稳中有升..................................................29 能源化工 原油：局势扭转，海峡继续封锁..................................................................................................................31沥青：成本波动风险加剧..............................................................................................................................31燃料油：地缘波动风险加剧..........................................................................................................................32LPG：需求持续回落........................................................................................................................................33天然气：地缘局势反复，短期价格跟随市场情绪波动..............................................................................34PX&PTA：原料压力增加，TA利润压缩........................................................................................................35BZ&EB：纯苯继续降负，去库幅度增加.......................................................................................................36乙二醇：海内外供应收紧..............................................................................................................................36短纤：下游逢低补货......................................................................................................................................37瓶片：库存持续去