日本MLCC产量与出口价值分析及2026年展望

METI production stats for Japan MLCC output value convertedinto US$ -17.5% YoY and -3.1% MoM. MLCC shipment value in US$ according to MoF trade stats was +5.5% YoY and -3.7% MoM.April 14, 2026 12:18 PM GMT Key Takeaways METI production stats show US$ Japan MLCC output value down YoY but US$export value up YoY; reasons for this unclear. MoM decreases for US$ Japan MLCC output value and US$ export value likelydue to seasonality. Expect MLCC shipment value to maintain positive growth in 2026 but slow YoY.AI server applications: Expect tight S/D, move to higher value-added products. Ceramic capacitors (MLCCs):Feb output ¥55.7bn (–15.5% YoY, –4.0% MoM), withaverage selling price (ASP) of ¥0.62 (–26.5% YoY, +1.5% MoM). In US$ terms,production value of $359.12mn was –17.5% YoY from $435.27mn and –3.1% MoMfrom $370.47mn, while ASP of 0.399¢ was –28.2% YoY from 0.555¢ and +2.4%MoM from 0.389¢. AECs:Feb production ¥15.5bn (+9.5% YoY, +4.8% MoM), with ASP of ¥19.2 (+1.2%YoY, +1.8% MoM). In US$ terms, production value of $100.10mn was +7.0% YoYfrom $93.55mn and +5.8% MoM from $94.58mn, while ASP of 12.38¢ was –1.1% YoYfrom 12.53¢ and +2.8% MoM from 12.05¢. Will MLCC prices rise on a same-product basis? What are the risks for MurataManufacturing?Our view for MLCCs in 2026 is that 1) prices for comparableproducts will continue to decline mildly, 2) ASP will be unlikely to fall, and 3) forMurata Manufacturing, in particular, the product mix will continue to improve in thearea of computing. Some market participants expect comparable product prices torise in product categories with tight supply and demand, such as AI serverapplications. We think rises in comparable product prices are contingent on Muratahiking prices, which we feel is unlikely. Instead, we expect Murata to continueimproving its product mix through the launch of new products exclusive to Murataand a shift to smaller size and higher capacity products. We think a key risk forMurata would be if it were unable to ramp up production to meet surging demand incomputing areas, such as AI servers, and it lost share as a result of sacrificing supplycapacity of MLCCs for other applications in order to respond to rising demand. Expect growth in MLCC shipment value to continue, butslow, in 2026 As shown in Exhibit 1 , global MLCC shipment value declined for two consecutive years,from $17.47bn in 2021 (+26.0% YoY) to $14.32bn in 2022 (-18.1%) and $12.64bn in 2023 (-11.7%), before rising again to $13.30bn in 2024 (+5.2%) and $14.67bn in 2025 (+10.3%). Weexpect shipment value to continue increasing, to $15.55bn in 2026 (+6.0%), $16.76bn in2027 (+7.8%) and $18.50bn in 2028 (+10.4%). In 2026, we expect demand for large-capacity products for AI servers and data centers tocontinue expanding, and while automobile production volumes remain nearly flat, thenumber of installed per vehicle to keep increasing. However, assuming that a significantrise in DRAM and NAND prices will inevitably slow final demand for smartphones, PCs,and other devices, we anticipate that although MLCC shipment value will continue togrow, the growth rate will become slower. On the other hand, for MLCCs used in AIservers, as GPUs transition to a new generation, there will be a need to install larger-capacity MLCCs in more limited spaces. (1) Murata is a frontrunner in miniaturization andincreased capacity; (2) although MLCCs generally experience a reduction in capacitancewhen a DC voltage is applied, Murata’s MLCCs maintain a large effective capacitance withminimal change; (3) Murata’s MLCCs also have the characteristic of maintaining stablecapacitance during high-frequency operation, where currents in electronic circuits switchrapidly. We think these features are likely to create more opportunities for customers topay premium prices for Murata’s high-quality and highly reliable products. Some marketparticipants expect MLCC unit prices to rise for similar products, but we forecast that unitprices for comparable products will continue to decline mildly. In contrast, asminiaturization and increased capacity progress, we think it likely that Murata will increasesales with differentiated high value-added products, and see a clearer difference in profitmargins compared to other MLCC companies. US$ MLCC export value in trade stats +5.5% YoY, -3.7%MoM Trade stats published by MOF on March 28 show February MLCC export value at ¥57.0bn(+8.0% YoY, –4.6% MoM), export volume at 75.2bn units (+4.5%, –8.1%), and ASP at¥0.758 (+3.4%, +3.7%). In US$ terms, export value of $367.15mn was up 5.5% YoY from$347.91mn but down 3.7% MoM from $381.36mn, while ASP of 0.488¢ rose 1.0% YoYfrom 0.484¢ and 4.7% MoM from 0.467¢. The trade stats data do not provide a fullyaccurate picture of how ASP has changed on a same-product basis, but from exportvalues, volumes, and ASP by destination region and customs post, we take the view thatASP continues to decline gradually on a same-product basis. For Greater China (China,Taiwan, a