礼来：Foundayo的首批IQVIA数据已发布，但存在重大局限性

Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Woody Polglase+1 917 344 8314woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.com Louisa Qiu+1 917 344 8495louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com LLY: First IQVIA data for Foundayo is live, although with majorlimitations While interpreting a single data point is fraught, we know you’re all trying to do it & so this noteaims to help contextualize what the first daily data for Foundayo might mean for Lilly vs Novo(covered by Justin Smith) in the oral obesity debate. Close Date14 Apr 2026LLY Close Price (USD)922.50Price Target (USD)1,300.00Upside/(Downside)41%52-Week Range1,133.95/623.78SPX6,967.38FYEDecDiv Yield0.7%Market Cap (USD) (M)871,595EV (USD) (M)908,192 What do we see for this first data point:25 TRx (all for 0.8mg) on the 13thApril is allwe’ve got. We expect this is a major understatement for a number of reasons: Importantly,daily TRx data only reflects 19K retail pharmacies and it explicitlyexcludes mail pharmacy(including LillyDirect). Weekly TRx data represents more pharmacies (40K) and includesLTC and Mail, and has a better capture rate vs daily too. However, there is always volatility incapture rates early in launch. We expect a first look at the weekly data this Friday 17th. Big questions on the IQVIA data (that we are seeking answers to): 1) is the capture ratepoor? And is it equally as poor as it was for the Wegovy pill at the same point?; 2) how wellis the IQVIA data incorporating sampled product in the scale-up?; 3) does this data have asimilar daily - weekly scaling ratio as what we’ve seen for the Wegovy pill? - Answers to all ofthese questions may be more forthcoming as we hear from Lilly IR as the first weekly datacomes through (anticipated Friday 17thApril). What might cause the Foundayo early data to look stronger than Wegovy pill?Lillyhas been laser focused on reducing friction (for patients & physicians) - we know thatLillyDirect is an easier platform & we now see that Amazon has enabled same-day deliveryfor Foundayo. We also know that Lilly’s sales/medical reps have been extremely effective atbuilding momentum, combined with the intention to sample as part of launch, and the factthat spring is a motivating time to start a GLP-1. On the bear case - we do acknowledge thatGLP-1 web searches reached all-time peak to date in late Dec/early Jan & that Wegovy pillhas the benefit of brand-recognition; but starting second, with a new brand-name didn’t stopLilly with Zepbound. In this note beyond the initial data comparison graphs, where you can see how the initial datapoint stacks up, we’ve also provided our slightly longer term views on how the first weeks oflaunch might track from a script perspective & scenarios that support LLY delivering morethan $2B in revenue from Foundayo this year (cons at $1.49B). Investment Implications We rate LLY Outperform with $1300 PT. DETAILS TRxWegovy PillWegovy Pill (Adjusted)Foundayo NRx Wegovy PillWegovy Pill (Adjusted)Foundayo LAUNCH SCENARIOS We published two main notes following the FDA approval of Foundayo, detailling (1) our initial launch expectations, and (2) ourexpectations for the first year of revenue. Please see the main exhibits below, and links to the notes: 1 Apr 2026 - LLY: Refining Foundayo (orfo) scenarios for 2026 - $2.0B well within reach 1 Apr 2026 - LLY: With an earlier than expected approval, we frame early expectations for Lilly's oral (orfo / Foundayo) GLP-1launch EXHIBIT 10:NBRx trajectory presented longitudinally,based on scaling up IQVIA data to accurately reflectrates following Novo AGM commentary that only ~50%being capture. EXHIBIT 13:NBRx trajectory longitudinally presented,based only on IQVIA data EXHIBIT 15:We've modelled four scenarios that build from our expectations of the initial weeks of launch - highlikelihood to beat consensus expectations ($000s) APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and A