伯恩斯坦能源：原油库存能否挺过冲突？

Bernstein Energy: Can crude oil stockpiles outlast the conflict? The US Iran conflict has entered its 45thday, with markets optimistic on resolutionof the conflict before the end of April.Disruption to energy flows of 15MMbls/d throughthe Straits of Hormuz or 15% of global liquids demand is unprecedented in the modernera. While Brent reached US$120/bbl, the retreat back to less than US$100/bbl signifiesoptimism in markets that there will be a negotiated settlement. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com While negotiations continue, there are currently almost no oil tankers transiting theStrait of Hormuz (SoH).According to our information there are over 750 vessels in theArabian Gulf, including 138 laden oil tankers. While Iran is demanding a US$2MM transitfee, the US has initiated a naval blockade of the Gulf. To restart shipping will require agreedshipping protocols and insurance arrangements which are not punitive. Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Since the start of the conflict, supply of crude has been reduced by c. 650MMbls(15MMbls/d) through physical disruption to supply.This has resulted in 210MMblsreduction of oil on water (global, ex-Arabian Gulf), and a 220MMbls reduction of oil importsto Asian markets. The remaining 200MMbls has likely offset through reduction in darkfleet inventories and sales from strategic petroleum reserves. Increasingly the shortfall inimports to Asia is being met by depletion of commercial inventories. Imports in Asia are dropping sharply as vessel arrivals end.Oil tankers from the Gulfonly stopped arriving since the start of April. Imports into Asia have only dropped by anaverage of 5MMbls/d y-o-y since March 1st, but the rate of decline has accelerated to10MMbls/d y-o-y over the past 10 days. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have experienced thegreatest decline in imports compared with a year ago with a c. 50% reduction y-o-y. Of the major economies in Asia, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan look the mostat risk if the conflict does not end by the end of April.With 4-7 weeks inventoryremaining, even if the war ended at the end of April (i.e. in just over 2 weeks), it could beanother 5-6 weeks from now before tankers arrive in Asia from the Gulf. China and Japan bycontrast look better placed with significant oil stockpiles. India also looks better placed asto being able to secure additional supply to offset a loss in supply in the Middle East. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS With negotiations underway between the US and Iran, markets appear to be pricing in a positive outcome with Brent backbelow US$100/bbl - which for us would be a relatively positive outcome. For the time being, no vessels are leaving the Gulf andcrude imports into Asia are falling sharply. As of now any shortfall in supply is being met by depletion of domestic inventories ordemand destruction as fuel prices rise sharply. If a resolution is reached before the end of this month, there are 138 laden oiltankers which can set sail for Asia immediately. Assuming a 3-week sailing time to Asia, it implies that imports could resume inroughly 4-5 weeks time. If however the war was to continue beyond the end of this month then we believe that there could besignificant rationing required in a number of Asian countries resulting in inventory depletion. While the markets are pricing in theend of the conflict in the near future any significant extension poses acute risks to a number of Asian economies. DETAILS The US Iran conflict has entered its 45thday, with markets optimistic on resolution to the conflict before the end of April.Disruption to energy flows of 15MMbls/d through the Straits of Hormuz or 15% of global liquids demand is unprecedented inthe modern era. While Brent reached US$120/bbl, the retreat back to less than US$100/bbl signifies optimism in markets thatthere will be a negotiated settlement. While negotiations continue, there are currently almost no oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to ourinformation there are over 750 vessels in the Arabian Gulf, including 138 laden oil tankers. While Iran is demanding a US$2MMtransit fee, the US has initiated a naval blockade of the Gulf. To restart shipping will require agreed shipping protocols andinsurance arrangements which are not punitive. SUPPLY REDUCTION EXCEEDS 600MMBLS Since the start of the conflict, supply of crude has been reduced by c. 650MMbls (15MMbls/d) through physical disruptionto supply. This has resulted in 210MMbls reduction of oil on water (global, ex-Arabian Gulf), and a 220MMbls reduction of oilimports to Asian markets. The remaining 200MMbls has likely offset through reduction in dark fleet inventories and sales fromstrategic petroleum reserves. Increasingly the shortfall in imports to Asia is being met by depletion of commercial inventories. EXHIBIT 1:From the start of the war to April 10,