中国第十五个五年计划：中国的更新行动指南

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Every five years, China sets its economic course through a new Five-Year Plan(FYP). On 13 March 2026, the 15th FYP was approved–laying out the economicand strategic path for the world's second-largest economy towards 'High-QualityDevelopment' through to 2030. China’s national policy direction carries profound implications for the global economy–trade flows, industrial competition, investment sentiment, and regulatory standards.Historically, China often met the objectives set out in the FYPs. Therefore, thestrategic signals embedded in FYPs should be closely monitored to anticipate futureshiftsin China’s growth path and the evolving competitive landscape both at homeand abroad.Three themes stand out: •Industrial upgrading: Building on previous plans, China continues upgradingtraditional manufacturing,and acceleratebreakthroughs in emerging andfuture industries,so calledNew Quality Productive Forces (NQPFs).Self-reliance is assigned higher priority than ever, with targeted investmentmobilising capital and expertise to rapidly scale priority sectors. •Boosting consumption:Renewed policy attention is given to increasingdomestic consumption, aiming to reduce dependence on government-ledinvestments. However, measures are expected to yield only incrementalgains in the near term. •Opening-up and green transition:China continues its commitment tomaintain high export levels and attract foreign investment, even as domestic-oriented procurement policies create new complexities–creating mixedsignals for foreign firms. Parallel to these dynamics, a binding green transitionagenda drives demand for cleantech and energy efficient solutions. For Swedish companiesoperatinginternationally andwithbusinessengagementsinChina, early insight into the potential impactsof the15thFYP is therefore essentialforadaptingstrategies,buildingresilienceand capturing first-moveradvantages in ashifting business environment. The window for strategic adjustment is now. To sustainmarket position, Swedish companies could pursue a combination of threestrategic paths: differentiate with distinct technological advantages in applicablesegments, compete in niche markets not yet prioritised by Chinese policies, orcapitalise on their strengths through early collaboration with local enterprises. PER PORTÉN LUTING FAN AXEL BRANGENFELDT ANTON JOHANSSON Trade Commissioner Chinaper.porten@business-sweden.se Consultantanton.johansson@business-sweden.se Consultantluting.fan@business-sweden.se Market Manager Shanghaiaxel.brangenfeldt@business-sweden.se STRATEGIC IMPORTANCEOF FIVE-YEAR PLANS China’s Five-Year Plans (FYPs) are formulated through a top-down process led bythe central government, combined with structured bottom-up consultation anditerative refinement. Unlike policy documents with narrow or short-term objectives,FYPs consolidate national priorities and serve as authoritative blueprints for resourceallocation. They directly guide government budgeting, financialincentives, landuseapprovals, infrastructure investment, technology and innovation programs,environmental governance,talent development schemes, and social welfareinitiatives. FYPs also operate as a national coordination mechanism, aligning policy prioritiesacross central and local governments,and among public and private stakeholders–governmentagencies, academic institutions, financial organisations, and enterprises.These actors synchronise their strategies, investment cycles, and implementationtimelines with FYP targets, enablingthemmore efficient mobilisation of resourcestoward shared national goals.Since their inception in 1953, FYPs have evolved infocus and methodology, yet they consistently reflect China’s principle of “changewithin continuity” in pursuit of its long-term objectives:Socialist ModernisationandNational Rejuvenation. This dynamic has been particularly visible since the launch ofReform and Opening Up, which preceded the 6thFYP (1981–1985) and introducedsubstantial shifts in planning logic, economic priorities, and engagement with globalmarkets. As the world’s secondlargest economy and a critical node in global supply chains,the policy transformations set in motion after the release of each new FYP reshapethe operating environment for Swedish companies, both in China and globally.Delays in adjusting to these shiftsrisk eroding competitive advantages in alandscape where policy direction often determines market conditions, investmentflows, and long-term strategic opportunities. SLOWER BUT RESILIENTDEVELOPMENT FOR THEPAST FIVE YEARS By the end of the 14thFYP period, China has delivered on many of the objectives setout in 2021. It comprisedeightbinding (mandatory) targetsand12 anticipated(guiding) targets, spanning many socioeconomic areas as illustrated in Figure2.Although many of the targets were formulated in descriptive rather than quantitativeterms, China made evident progress in key areas. Despite moderation, China’s GDP remained robust o