中国：第15个五年计划-欧洲工业可能没有太多甜蜜点

China: 15th FYP – likely not manysweet spots for Europeanindustrials European Capital GoodsNEUTRAL Proposals for 15th FYP implies consumptions likely remain ahigher priority over industrial activities, and rapid growth inindustrials/infrastructure not yet in sight. Property couldstabilise but too early to say back to growth. Domesticsubstitutions remains a trend, while AI could be an opp. European Capital Goods Timothy Lee, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6879timothy.lee@barclays.comBarclays, UK Xin Wang+44 (0)20 7773 1380xin.wang@barclays.comBarclays, UK What's new?China announced the proposals for the 15thFive Year Plan (FYP), with the main tokeep economic growth "within a reasonable range". Overall direction was in line with themessages from the earlier Fourth Plenum meeting (see our Economists' report, China: TheFourth Plenum: forging ahead, 23 October 2025). Some key highlights related to industrialsinclude: Vlad Sergievskii+44 (0)20 7116 1117vlad.sergievskii@barclays.comBarclays, UK George Featherstone, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 8585george.featherstone@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Improve and upgrade traditional industries, including mining, metallurgy, chemicals, light•industrials, textile, machinery, marine and construction, and improve their globalpositioning. Vaspaan Yazdi Avari+91 (0)22 6175 2382vaspaany.avari@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Develop emerging industries, with faster development of renewable energy, new materials,•aerospace and low-altitude economy; and promote new areas like quantum technology,biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces,embodied intelligence and 6G. Amit Batra+91 (0)22 6175 1682amit.batra@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Enhance technologies and develop full value chains of areas like integrated circuits, machine•tools, high-end instruments,software,advanced materials and biomanufacturing. •Promote development of digital China and speed up development of AI and relevant•infrastructure. UK Capital GoodsJonathan Hurn, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0468jonathan.hurn@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Largely support domestic consumptions, with measures to boost employment and•household income, more direct policy supports to consumers, and remove unnecessaryrestrictions on auto/property consumptions. EuropeanSoftware& PaymentsSven Merkt, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 1254sven.merkt@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Keep reasonable growth in investments, and increase proportion of government investments•related to people's welfare. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3.Completed: 28-Oct-25, 14:08 GMTReleased: 28-Oct-25, 14:12 GMTRestricted - External •Speed up establishment of new business models for property, including development,•financing and sales. Deeper development of urbanization and upgrade of cities. •Anti-involution to continue and reduce excessive competitions.• Our quick takes on the proposals: 1.Not likely a high growth scenario.President Xi mentioned upfront that the next 5 years is1.faced with higher uncertainties, which set a scene for realistic targets to be set early nextyear, dimming hopes for aggressive stimulus. Reasonable economic growth could be moreappropriate for an economy of this size. 2.Consumption > industrials.We continue to see Chinese government putting higher2.emphasis on boosting domestic consumption as the key driver for economic growth ratherthan a significant growth in industrial activities or infrastructure investments. This is anextension of what we observed in 2025; for instance, the government increased the budgetfor consumer products trade-in subsidies, but removed the targeted budget for equipmentupgrade subsidies. Also, with the emphasis of ‘dual cycle’ from the start of 14thFYP, a morechallenging external environment means the domestic cycle is more important to economicgrowth now, i.e. ashiftfrom China’s traditional supply-led top-down economy. This impliesa significant, broad-based acceleration in industrial activities in China is still remote, andthis could be further impacted by the anti-involution campaign (higher prices could meanlower volume). 3.Property market may stabilise, but too early to say grow.Further removal of restrictive3.policies could be helpful on property sales, but the incrementaleffectis subject to furtherobservation, as the government has been doing that since late 2024 but the policy benefit isfading again from the recent months’ property data. Th