中国电动汽车追踪：价格压力上升且季节性增强；经济型纯电动汽车的甜蜜点

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Demand toimprove inMay/Juneon more model supplywhilepricingremainsunderpressureConsumptiondowngrade, budget BEV asweet spotWe preferOEMswith strong product cyclesDemand to pick up anotch on more new car supply while pricing remainsunderpressure.Despite overall lukewarm car demand, EV/ICE conversion continuestosupport EV’s growth.ChinaEVsbooked294k unitsinretail volume in1-11May, up29%vs.thesame period inApril, implying c51% EV penetration (CPCA).We expect demandto track strongerm-o-minto May/June on more new models/refreshedsupplyandmorepricediscounts(ie,EV leaders’aggressiveprice actionssince May).Consumptiondowngrade, BEV outperformed PHEV, budget range a sweet spot.Battery pricesareatanhistoricaltrough, which is a tailwind to support EV expansiononstructural costadvantages.Along withcontinuousperformance upgradesin fast chargingand range, BEVisnow leadingthe growth and outperformed PHEV this year.Wealsonotice consumptiondowngradesarea universal trend and budget price ranges(with aprice point below Rmb150K),especiallywith apricepoint below Rmb100K, area sweetspothighlightin 2025.Budget BEV models such as GeelyGalaxy’sStarwishandXPEV’sMona03 have been doing well, likely followed by more new modelsuppliessuch asNissan’s N7, Geely Galaxy’s Starshine 8,etc. Nevertheless, the implicationsonindustryprofit might becontinuouspressuregivenalower mix and challenging pricing, although itcould also pushtheindustry closer toaconsolidation inflection point.Stock highlights.Among OEMs,weprefer EV makerswithstrong new car cycles,especiallythose thatpush smart driving intothemass market segment,such asGeelyand XPengUS/H;maintain Buy ratings:Geelybooked 937,936 unitsofwholesalevolume in 4M25, +49% y-o-y, mainlyon its mass market EVbrand Galaxy’s strong new car cycle and volume ramp-upmomentum; aftertheZeekr privatisation, we expectmoregroup synergiestodrive bettercost andhigheroperating efficiencyfor Geely overall.XPeng4M25 sales reached 129,053 units, +277% y-o-y, onstrong adoption ofthe M03 and P7+. The company is likely to release its new model M03 maxversion with city NOA software in May,withmore new cars to follow in 2025e,includingtheSUV G7, EREV series,etc, which we expect to further drive itsoverall volume growth and profitability.Seepage8forstockvaluation and key risks.China EV TrackerRising pricing pressure coupled with higherseasonality;budget BEV sweet spot ◆◆◆◆◆ Sector highlightsExhibit1.China EV market: top 10 EV makers took 77% share in 4M25Source:CPCA, HSBCExhibit2.China ICE car market: top 10 brands took 77% share in 1Q25Source:CAAM, HSBCExhibit3.China ICE car market: top 10 brands took 77% share in 1Q25Source:CAAM, HSBCBYDGeelyChanganWulingTeslaLi AutoXPeng0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Top10took77%market share in4M25(vs.78% in2024)VWToyotaGeelyChanganHondaBenzAudi0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Top10took71%market share in1Q25(flat vs.2024)BYDVWToyotaGeelyChanganChery0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Top15took66%market share in1Q25(vs.68% in2024) Most frequently discussed charts of the monthExhibit4.In 4M25, Geely is the top sharegainer in China passenger car marketExhibit5.Consumptiondowngradecontinues in 4M25 in China PC marketSource:CPCA, HSBC. Note:thischart shows the top 5 OEMsgainingand losingmarket shares in 4M25 China passenger car market.Source:CPCA, HSBCExhibit6. China BEV sales volume booked43% y-o-y growth in 4M25Exhibit7. In 4M25, BEV mix in China EVsalesvolume increased back to over 60%Source:CPCA, HSBCSource:CPCA, HSBCExhibit8.China’s EV passenger vehiclediscount leveldown m-o-mto9.4% inApril2025Exhibit9.China’s ICE passenger vehiclediscount levelup slightlym-o-m to22.2%inApril2025Source: CPCA, HSBCSource: CPCA, HSBC-3.5%-1.5%0.5%2.5%4.5%GeelyXPengXiaomiCheryLeapDF HondaTeslaDF NissanSeresBYDMarket share change (4M25 vs. 2024)0%20%2019202020212022202320244M25Above RMB300kRMB100k-150k73%21%23%43%160%83%77%26%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%2022202320244M25BEV volume growth y-o-y (%)PHEV+EREV volume growth y-o-y (%)75%25%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022 EV mix2023 EV mix2024 EV mix4M25 EV mixBEV9.4%10.8%11.5%9.4%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%JanFeb Mar Apr May JunJulAugSep Oct Nov Dec202520232022202421.9%21.7%22.1%22.2%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%JanFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2025 Source: CAAM (includingestimates), HSBCExhibit12.2025Aprilpassenger car sales booked 14% y-o-y growthExhibit14. Overall auto retail sales down9%m-o-mbutup14%y-o-yinApril2025Source: CPCA, HSBCJulAugSepOcty-o-y growth (bear case, full year -3% growth)2025 actual monthly y-o-y growth-12%25%15%14%-500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,000JanFebMarAprMayJun JulAugSepOctNovDec2025 monthly sales volume2025 y-o-y growth (RHS) Source: CADA, HSBCExhibit17.Lithium carbonate pricehasfallen14%YTDSource: Wind, HSBCExhibit19. China’s EV battery i