2025应对交通拥堵：城市与企业在“最先和最后一公里”运输中的创新路径研究报告

W H I T EP A P E R Contents Foreword Executive summary Introduction 1The impact of last-mile deliveries on cities 1.1Impact on urban centres1.2The need for change 2How the delivery ecosystem is embracing change 2.1Ecosystem stakeholders2.2Retailers and their customers 3Potential areas of intervention3.1Enabling framework and conditions 4Recommendations 4.1Recommendations for city governments Conclusion Contributors Endnotes Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated and ©2024 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Vivian Brady-PhillipsHead, Strategic Initiatives,Centre for Urban Jennifer HolmesManaging Director,Accenture Public Service The rapidly growing e-commerce landscape,coupled with the ongoing pursuit of consumerconvenience, has created an unprecedented surgein deliveries. While this has brought new economicopportunities, it has also introduced significantchallenges in cities, including increased congestion, all other stakeholders involved in urban deliveries.It outlines the pressing need for private and publicstakeholders to adopt practices that reduceemissions and alleviate congestion in cities andchart a course for a more sustainable urban delivery We invite industry stakeholders and decision-makers within the delivery ecosystem and inurban governance to engage with this paper’sfindings and recommendations. Together, we can This white paper is a collaboration betweenthe World Economic Forum and Accenture,with contributions from industry leaders and Executive summary Without action, emissions caused bydeliveries in urban centres could rise The rapid growth of e-commerce has significantlyaltered consumer expectations, leading to asurge in deliveries. Globally, e-commerce alreadyconstitutes more than 20% of retail sales andis adding more delivery vehicles to urban roads.While this brings economic benefits and consumer –Clarifying and standardizing frameworksand regulations that define how –Collaborating with the private sector tocreate incentives for safe, innovative Private sector Under a business-as-usual scenario, carbonemissions from all urban delivery traffic couldincrease by 60% by 2030. Despite manyconsumers indicating a preference for sustainabledeliveries, less than 30% are willing to compromiseon cost.1Without significant changes, continued –Deploying technologies, solutions andcollaborative operating models that drive –Accelerating the transition to zero-emission fleets through support for –Providing consumers with informationthat will drive support for more Forecasting models, applied to six city archetypesin this paper, indicate a significant rise incongestion, emissions and negative impactson road safety and noise levels. The urgent needto transition to zero-emission fleets and sharedinfrastructure is evident, with city governments Collaborative –Planning, innovating and collaboratingthroughout the delivery ecosystem toprovide necessary infrastructure and This paper calls on public- and private-sectorstakeholders throughout the value chain to –Deploying shared infrastructure, assetsand other resources in support of last-mile operations, including microhubs, –Sharing data that helps to develop aholistic view of delivery operations Public sector –Integrating delivery operations into citystrategies, including through sustainable By promoting a shared commitment to sustainableand innovative practices, the delivery ecosystemcan enact change that enhances quality of life Introduction This paper examines the future of urbandeliveries, highlighting collaboration exacerbating congestion, emissions and safetyissues, and therefore affecting the liveability of cities.For a city such as Sydney, for example, this mightmean an additional 10,000 vehicles on the road,including trucks, vans and micromobility, such as Consumersnow expect fasterdeliveries as Growth in last-mile deliveries Since 2020, last-mile deliveries have surged,in large part due to the significant increase ine-commerce, with sales reaching $5.8 trillion in 2023and expected to increase by 39% by 2027.2Thisgrowth is attributed to factors including urbanization,rising incomes, changing consumer behaviour and Retailers selling in multiple online and physicalchannels are using inner-city stores to holddecentralized inventory closer to consumers, enablingsame- and next-day delivery and local pick-up foronline orders. Grocery retailers are prominent inquick commerce, with online-only models served by However, growth in online retail and quickcommerce has caused the number of deliveryvehicles in cities to surge. Witho