逆风前行：2025年意大利并购与私募股权市场动态报告

Defying the odds Italian M&A and PE activity in 2025 Contents Infographic3 Foreword4 The Italian M&A market in focus5 Sector watch:8Financial services, industrials& chemicals and TMT Secondaries and continuation funds12 Italian private equity activity in focus13 M&A outlook and conclusion15 Contacts Amélie Gilletamelie.gillet@gpblex.it Gianni Martogliagianni.martoglia@gpblex.it Francesco Gattifrancesco.gatti@gpblex.it Raffaele Sansoneraffaele.sansone@gblex.it Gatti Pavesi Bianchi Ludovici is an independent full-service law firm. We offer clients a one-stop shop in a single, central point of contact representinga benchmark in carrying out and seeing through complex corporate and structured finance transactions in Italy. We have offices in Milan, Rome and London. We offer unparalleled multi-jurisdictional transactional, regulatory and advisory practices and have extensiveexperience in delivering high-level assistance in all areas of civil, commercial and corporate law, as well as in international and domestic tax advice, offeringcutting-edge and sophisticated solutions. Banking, big-ticket deals andbold PE bets spur Italian M&A M&A value defies volume softness With macro headwinds and trade uncertainty buildingin the background, Italian M&A volume fell by 17% in H12025, mirroring the wider European trend. However, awave of domestic bank mergers helped Italy buck theregional slump, pushing aggregate deal value up 17% to€44.6bn, outperforming a 2% decline across Europe. Banking consolidation drives value, I&C leads volume Financial services is the clear deal value sectorfrontrunner, representing 33% of the total after a1,973% surge. Meanwhile, despite experiencing aquieter period, industrials & chemicals (I&C) remainedthe bedrock of dealmaking, commanding 23% oftransaction volume. Private equity continues to place bold bets Thelargest PE transactionin HY 2025saw Italian firmFSI SGR acquire 80% of TNB,a new fintech bank, in a complexcarve-out from asset managerAzimut Holding€1.21 Italian private equity activity slowed in the first half,with deal value down 20% to €9.6bn amid highfinancing costs and trade uncertainty. Despite thecaution, sponsors remained active at the large-capend, executing complex, billion-euro carve-outs andstrategic partnerships in sectors like financial servicesand I&C. Continuation funds mark their arrival €75The value of globalGP-led secondariesin 2024 Signifying a maturing PE market, continuation funds arefinally emerging as a key strategic tool. While still rarein Italy, landmark GP-led deals by Ambienta and CVCCapital Partners have set an important precedent. Thesesecondaries, which have exploded globally for a recordUS$75bn in transaction value last year, are a welcomedevelopment that provides an alternative exit route. Foreword Like many of its European neighbours, Italy’s economycontinues to demonstrate shallow growth. However, there’sprogress on the horizon. The country’s Harmonised InflationRate decreased to 1.7% in May, down from 2% in April.This figure, revised down from a preliminary estimate of1.9%, indicates that pricing dynamics are well on track toaccommodate further rate cuts, which in turn will make dealfinancing more economically viable. However, external headwinds have been building acrossEurope in recent months and Italy has felt the blowback.Most notably, the country’s export-oriented economy issquarely in the crosshairs of the new US administration’shawkish trade policy ambitions. This is weighing on alreadyslow growth and is clouding the near-term outlook, givingdealmakers pause for thought. This volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop hasinevitably had a cooling effect on transaction volume. In linewith the broader European trend, the number of Italian dealshas fallen as market anxieties curb risk appetite, especiallyin the mid-market. Faced with difficulty in valuing assetsand forecasting performance, many have adopted a morecircumspect approach, waiting for greater clarity beforecommitting to transactions. This newfound strength has unlocked a long-anticipatedphase of rationalisation in a relatively fragmented market.There is a clear pivot away from traditional retail bankingtowards more profitable, high-growth areas such as wealthand asset management and insurance, which are seen ascritical for future profitability. Yet, this is only half the story. A bifurcation that was alreadyevident last year continues to unfold. The slowdown in dealcount is being offset by a surge in aggregate M&A value.In a counter-narrative to the regional trend, Italian M&Avalue grew in the first half of the year as the rest of Europeexperienced a decline, and acquirers focused their capitalon strategic, high-conviction opportunities. There is plenty of room still left to run. Major shareholdersare actively advocating for more deals that will create larger,more efficient banking groups with enhanced scale and astronger footing in Italy’s wealthy