美国半导体行业一季度预览：轮动担忧

1Q26 Preview: Rotation Consternation Ross Seymore The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) delivered a strong performance in1Q26, rising +7% q/q and outperforming the SPX by +12%. While that positiveperformance was seasonally typical (SOX outperformed 80% of last 10 1Qs), thedrivers of the growth saw a meaningful shift vs prior quarters as semicap namesrose significantly, while semiconductor names generally lagged. We believe thisrotation reflects the AI-driven need for capacity expansion (higher WFE) but alsohighlights investors becoming somewhat more selective within the AI trade overallas they question the sustainability of customer capex growth and simultaneouslymoderate their optimism toward the AI-enabling chip companies themselves.While2Q typically presents a more challenging quarter for the SOX(outperformance magnitude/frequency much lower than in 1Q), we believe thecombination of lagging 1Q performance, reasonable valuations, and the likelihoodofsolid 1Q/2Q prints/guides should provide a favorable set-up for manysemiconductor names. Although predicting the catalyst that will yield a rotationback to AI processor names is challenging, we remain constructive on share-gaining leaders like Buy-rated AVGO. Within broad-based names we continue tofavorBuy-rated ON and NXPI given their cyclically improving end-marketexposures and discount valuations. Research Analyst+1-415-617-3268 Apoorva KumarResearch Associate+1-212-250-9286 DJ SebastianResearch Associate+1-415-262-2007 Melissa Weathers Research Analyst+1-212-250-2134 AI Semiconductors: Strength continues but selectivity risingDespite strong fundamentals, consistent execution, and robust demand, core AI semiconductorcompanies like NVDA,AVGO,and AMD have experiencedunderwhelming stock performance throughout 1Q26. While there could be avariety of reasons for this paradox, we believe it primarily stems from investorconcerns around the sustainability of cloud capex growth. Indeed, we believeinvestors are becoming increasingly focused on finding clear evidence of ROI on AIinvestments, especially as future cloud capex growth becomes more dependent oncompanyrevenue/cash flow growth.Unfortunately,this uncertainty aroundcustomer ROI has resulted in concerns regarding the sustainability of growthprospects for the semiconductor companies supplying the core AI processors. Thishas weighed on many AI-enabling semi co's but is most clearly illustrated by GPUleader NVDA, which has seen its PE compress to ~16x (-43% below its long-termmedian) despite our expectation of +75% y/y revenue growth in CY26. All told, webelieve the valuation compression across many of the AI-enabling names hasbecome excessive, but we fail to find apparent semiconductor company-producedcatalysts to reverse this trend (strong reports/guides, customer collaborations, GTC SemiconductorsUS Semiconductors have all failed to alter the narrative YTD) until the aforementioned comfort incustomer capex growth sustainability is attained. Consequently, we remainselective in our recommendations within the AI theme. Broad-Based Semiconductors: Corner turned, now pace in focus On the broad-based side, there is growing evidence of cyclical recoveries in key end-markets like Automotive and Industrials, with many companies suggesting that thedownturn is now behind them. While these improvements are expected to drivefundamental gains for analog/mixed-signal companies (e.g., TXN, ADI, NXP), weanticipate the pace of recovery to be prolonged and gradual due to persistentmacroeconomic headwinds and emerging cost pressures from elevated memorypricing, particularly impacting Consumer, Auto, and Wireless segments. DataCenters remain a significant bright spot, experiencing a substantial +71% year-over-year revenue increase in 4Q25, driven by escalating AI demand, with growthaccelerating consistently over the past three quarters and projected to reach +82%year-over-year in 1Q26. Automotive and Industrial revenues also showed continuedacceleration in 4Q25, growing +1% and +16% year-over-year respectively, withpositive trends expected to persist into 1Q26. In contrast, while other broad-basedend markets like Computing, Consumer, Wireless, and Comms Infra generally sawpositive year-over-year trends, they showed signs of deceleration, likely due to anormalization of growth outside of data centers and cost/supply headwinds fromrising memory prices, suggesting choppy trends will continue. Expecting solid prints/guides in 1Q / 2Q26, broadly in line with Street ests. Heading into this earnings cycle, we generally anticipate solid 1Q/2Q reports/guides across our coverage, though we do not expect all stocks to be rewarded forpositive results/outlooks given the highly bifurcated trading behavior within thespace. Subgroups like processors have been somewhat out of favor over the lasttwo quarters despite their solid fundamentals and outlooks, and we thereforebelieve the bar is lower for those names heading into their p