半导体设备行业一季度预览：还能更好吗？

US SemicapEquipment TMTSemicap Equipment 1Q26 Preview: Does it get any betterthan this? Melissa Weathers WithSemicap shares already up~50%YTD this year,investors are nowincreasingly asking the question: “Does it get any better than this?”. Buysideexpectations for WFE have reached extraordinary levels (consensus now ~$170b+WFE in 2027) and are tracking well ahead of guidance from companies. This growthis underpinned by a historic outlook for fab construction in the coming years as newDRAM/Foundry fabs come online (see our detailed fab trackers for these segmentswithin our note). For this earnings season, we see strong fundamentals for thegroup in 1Q into 2Q, although the real growth isn’t expected to start until 2H26 givenfab buildout timing. We question how much upside there can be in the near-termgivenclean-room constraints,but believe the industry is working towardsaccelerating these build plans as fast as possible, still leaving upside potential.Valuations for the group now stand an average +52% above long-term medians onour numbers, creating an admittedly difficult setup into earnings. Net-net, while thebar is high, we believe fundamental momentum will remain in semicaps’ favor in thecoming quarters, helping the sub-sector to continue to outperform in 2026. Ourfavorite names in the large-cap group include Buy-rated AMAT (for those who aremore valuation sensitive) and LRCX (for positive earnings revision potential). InSMID-caps, we prefer Buy-rated MKSI (high-beta WFE & backend exposure) and Q(balanced front- and back-end materials exposure). Research Analyst+1-212-250-2134 Apoorva KumarResearch Associate+1-212-250-9286 Ross Seymore Research Analyst+1-415-617-3268 Raising WFE outlooks for 2026 and 2027 to + 20% and +17%, respectively We now expect the WFE market to grow +20% y/y in 2026 and +17% y/y in 2027,up from our prior estimates of +13% y/y and +14% y/y, respectively. Our revisednumbers reflect a fundamentally stronger WFE environment and stand closer toupdated company WFE outlooks (which call for WFE to grow 20%+ in 2026 withfurther growth in 2027). We summarize our key thoughts across the four major WFEverticals below: nLeading-Edge F/L: Our upward revisions in leading-edge F/L primarilystem from our expectations of structurally stronger spending at TSMC,which most recently guided its 2026 capital expenditures to $54b (at themidpoint), implying a meaningful +30% y/y step-up from 2025 levels.TSMC also indicated it expects its capital spending to be "significantlyhigher" over the next three years with the implication being that total CapExdollars over the next three years (DBe ~$194b) would exceed that of theprior three-year period (~$101b in expenditures over 2023 - 2025). Ourestimates also assume incremental improvements in tool-related spending Semicap EquipmentUS Semicap Equipment at INTC and Samsung (tooling spending increasing as a mix of capex atINTC; Taylor fab at Samsung). nLagging-Edge F/L: On the lagging-edge front, we are taking a less cautiousstance on spending out of China as the region has consistently delivered ~2- 3 years of elevated spending, despite industry-wide expectations of aslowdown. Our higher 2026 estimates primarily reflect this as well asconstructive commentary out of ASMI (which indicated it expects Chinasales to increase in 2026). We also assume a muted resumption of spendingatthe broad-based semiconductor companies following recentimprovements in cyclical conditions across broad-based end-markets. nDRAM: Capex outlooks from the big three memory vendors have beenparticularly bullish over the last three months, with all three companiesindicating higher capital investments in the out-year. We believe this shouldbode well for DRAM WFE and extend beyond 2026 as vendors have multi-year roadmaps to bring on additional production capacity. That said, weexpect spending in the near-term may be limited by clean room constraintsuntil more shells are built. nNAND: Our NAND WFE estimates are driven by our expectations of strongupgrade-related spending in 2026 (LRCX noted that 2026 would be growthyear for NAND on its F2Q26 call). We currently model growth to continuein 2027, again brought on by steady upgrade spending. WFE Outlook We now expect the WFE market to grow +20% y/y in 2026 and +17% y/y in 2027,with growth being primarily driven by leading-edge F/L and DRAM investments. With this note, we are updating our WFE forecasts to account for the variety ofpositive developments since our 2026 Outlook at the start of the year. In short, weare raising our 2026 WFE estimate from $116b (+13% y/y) to $132b (+20% y/y), withour new estimate standing largely in-line with company WFE outlooks, reflectingour constructive stance on memory and leading-edge F/L investments increasingfurther. We expect aggregate WFE growth to slightly decelerate to +17% y/ygrowth in 2027 (albeit still up versus our prior estimate of +14% y/y) on continuedstrength in memory and leading-edge F/