2026印度尼西亚农业食品行业的经济影响研究报告

ABOUT OXFORD ABOUT ASEAN FOOD CONTENTS Executive summary��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 4 Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as acommercial venture with Oxford University’sbusiness college to provide economic forecastingand modelling to UK companies and financialinstitutions expanding abroad. Since then, wehave become one of the world’s foremostindependent global advisory firms, providing 1�Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������8 The ASEAN Food and Beverage Alliance(AFBA) is a group of national industryassociations that supports manufacturing,distribution, and the sale of a wide rangeof food and beverage products. Bybringing together the collective expertise 2�The Economic Footprint of Indonesia’s Agri-food Sector������102.1 Defining and measuring the sector....................................................112.2 The sector’s total contribution to the economy..........................122.3 Economic linkages along the value chain......................................12 3�Outlook for Indonesia’s Agri-food Sector������������������������������������143.1 Shifting conditions in global trade and investment....................16 3.2 Bracing for tomorrow’s trade shocks..............................................18 3.3 New Openings in a Changing Trade Landscape........................20 Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regionalcentres in New York, London, Frankfurt, andSingapore, Oxford Economics has offices acrossthe globe in Belfast, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago,Dubai, Dublin, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, MexicoCity, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Sydney,Tokyo, and Toronto. We employ over 750 staff,including more than 450 professional economists, 4�Building Resilience and Competitiveness��������������������������������� 224.1 Short-term responses and trade diversion opportunities.......23 ABOUT FOOD Food Industry Asia (FIA) was formed in2010 to enable major food and beveragemanufacturers and ingredients suppliersto speak with one voice on complexissues such as health and nutrition, foodsafety, sustainability, and regulations andtrade. From its base in Singapore, FIA 5�Key Takeaways ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 28 6�Technical Annex�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 29 Results presented here are based on information provided by third parties,upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report in good Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate,financial, and government decision-makers andthought leaders. Our worldwide client base nowcomprises over 2,500 international organisations, To discuss the report further please contact:Chan Qi Yu:qychan@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics6 Battery Road, #38-05, Singapore 049909 In recent years, the sector has faced a markedlymore complex operating environment. Shiftingglobal trade dynamics, rising protectionism, andevolving consumer demand have introduced a new EXECUTIVE SUMMARY reflecting its dominant role in the value chain. •F&B manufacturingcontributed USD 152.0billion to GDP and supported 10.3 million jobs, Indonesia’s agri-food sector is a cornerstone of the national economy�It underpins foodsecurity, supports livelihoods, and serves as a major contributor to enterprise development,particularly among micro-, small- and medium-sized businesses�From farms and fisheries •F&B distributioncontributed USD 79.0 billionin GDP and supported 17.6 million jobs, mainly This moment of recalibration is not withoutopportunity. The agri-food sector remains uniquelypositioned to drive inclusive economic growth MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND POLICY The global economic landscape is undergoingrapid transformation, with rising trade tensionsand policy fragmentation creating both risks andopportunities for Indonesia’s agri-food sector.The tariffs imposed on Indonesian goods by theUnited States—Indonesia’s second largest agri- Oxford Economics was commissioned by ASEANFood and Beverage Alliance (AFBA) and FoodIndustry Asia (FIA) to provide an analysis ofthe Indonesian agri-food sector’s economic However, amid these challenges lie new strategicopportunities. Indonesia’s expanding networkof regional trade agreements—most notably theRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)—and growing ties with partners suchas the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) provide THE AGRI-FOOD SECTORS’ ECONOMIC In this analysis, we define the agri-foodsector as comprising three core components:agricultural production, food and beverage (F&B) The sector contributed USD 448�2 billion tonational GDP in 2025—equivalent to nearly onethird of Indonesia’s economy that year—andsupported 68�3 million jobs,close to half of total Short-term priorities (resilience and export •Streamline border processes, and sanitaryand phytosanitary (SPS) procedures, exp