期货眼·日迹：每日早盘观察

每 日早 盘 观 察 每日早盘观察 目录 金融衍生品 股指期货：停火利好有望推动反弹................................................................................................................4国债期货：地缘反复，多单止盈....................................................................................................................5 农产品 蛋白粕：供应继续承压盘面整体下行..........................................................................................................6白糖：国际油价大跌国际糖价跟跌..............................................................................................................6油脂板块：中东地缘有所弱化，油脂震荡偏弱运行....................................................................................8玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏弱，盘面底部震荡...................................................................................................8生猪：出栏压力增加价格整体下行..............................................................................................................9花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡..................................................................................................10鸡蛋：现货价格趋稳淘汰有所增加..........................................................................................................11苹果：新果季有增产预期关注花期天气....................................................................................................12棉花-棉纱：短期有所支撑棉价震荡为主...................................................................................................12 黑色金属 钢材：地缘冲突缓和，钢价延续震荡偏弱走势..........................................................................................14双焦：地缘冲突缓和，偏弱运行..................................................................................................................14铁矿：市场预期转弱，矿价偏空运行..........................................................................................................15铁合金：供需边际改善，油价波动扰动较大..............................................................................................16 有色金属 金银：美伊暂时停火金银反弹.....................................................................................................................17铂钯：美伊暂时停火贵金属短线反弹.........................................................................................................18铜：美伊暂时停火，铜价反弹......................................................................................................................18氧化铝：地缘冲突缓和关注仓单消化进度.................................................................................................19电解铝：美伊达成停火两周协议市场恐慌情绪预计缓和.........................................................................20铸造铝合金：地缘冲突局势短期有所缓和..................................................................................................21锌：暂时观望..................................................................................................................................................21 铅：逢高分批布局空单..................................................................................................................................22镍：海峡有望通航，成本支撑下移..............................................................................................................23不锈钢：成本支撑，跟随镍价运行..............................................................................................................24工业硅：区间下沿空单逐步减仓..................................................................................................................24多晶硅：近月合约或仍有下跌空间..............................................................................................................25碳酸锂：供需紧平衡，锂价宽幅震荡..........................................................................................................26锡：美伊停火两周，锡价上方压力减弱......................................................................................................26 航运及碳排放 集运：美伊达成临时2周停火，地缘情绪降温..........................................................................................28干散货运价：美伊局势或有缓和，关注海湾地区船舶贸易环境的改善情况..........................................29碳排放：中国碳市场交易平淡，欧盟发布CBAM证书收割季度价格......................................................30 能源化工 原油：停火两周达成，国际油价暴跌..........................................................................................................33沥青：地缘波动风险加剧..............................................................................................................................33燃料油：地缘波动风险加剧..........................................................................................................................34LPG：停火达成，进口成本预计回落............................................................................................................35天然气：美伊停火，但卡塔尔预计短期仍旧无法恢复出口......................................................................36PX&PTA：PTA装置变动增加.........................................................................................................................37BZ&EB：纯苯供应减量，苯乙烯负荷回升...................................................................................................38乙二醇：海内外停车增多，供应收紧..........................................................................................................39短纤：终端开机局部下调........................................