期货眼·日迹：每日早盘观察

每 日早 盘 观 察 每日早盘观察 目录 金融衍生品 股指期货：成交放大升势确立........................................................................................................................4国债期货：曲线斜率有所趋平........................................................................................................................5 农产品 蛋白粕：供应压力增加盘面整体下行..........................................................................................................6白糖：国际糖价下跌国内糖价小幅跟随......................................................................................................6油脂板块：油脂整体高位震荡运行................................................................................................................7玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏弱，盘面底部震荡...................................................................................................8生猪：供应压力增加价格继续下行..............................................................................................................9花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡..................................................................................................10鸡蛋：现货价格趋稳淘汰有所增加..........................................................................................................10苹果：新果季有增产预期关注花期天气....................................................................................................11棉花-棉纱：短期有所支撑棉价震荡为主...................................................................................................12 黑色金属 钢材：地缘冲突影响边际转弱，钢价延续震荡偏弱走势..........................................................................14双焦：可轻仓逢低试多..................................................................................................................................14铁矿：市场预期转弱，矿价偏空对待..........................................................................................................15铁合金：供需边际改善，油价波动扰动较大..............................................................................................16 有色金属 金银：停火局面脆弱金银回吐部分涨幅....................................................................................................17铂钯：美伊谈判仍有分歧贵金属冲高回落................................................................................................18铜：美伊谈判反复，铜仍相对坚挺..............................................................................................................18氧化铝：地缘冲突缓和关注仓单消化进度................................................................................................19电解铝：美伊达成停火两周协议市场恐慌情绪预计缓和........................................................................20铸造铝合金：地缘冲突局势短期有所缓和..................................................................................................21锌：暂时观望..................................................................................................................................................21 铅：逢高分批布局空单..................................................................................................................................22镍：中东局势反复，有色板块反弹遇阻......................................................................................................23不锈钢：成本支撑，跟随镍价运行..............................................................................................................24工业硅：区间下沿空单逐步减仓..................................................................................................................25多晶硅：区间下沿空单逐步减仓..................................................................................................................25碳酸锂：供需紧平衡，锂价宽幅震荡..........................................................................................................26锡：海外地缘政治紧张，锡价或窄幅震荡..................................................................................................26 航运及碳排放 集运：美伊停火谈判波折，霍尔木兹海峡通行依然受阻..........................................................................28干散货运价：中东地缘政治冲突反复，海湾地区船舶贸易环境仍处困境..............................................29碳排放：中国碳市场交易平淡，欧盟发布CBAM证书第一季度价格......................................................30 能源化工 原油：海峡通航前景仍然不明......................................................................................................................32沥青：库存低位需求疲弱，成本波动加剧..................................................................................................33燃料油：地缘波动风险加剧..........................................................................................................................34LPG：火达成，进口成本预计回落................................................................................................................34天然气：美伊停火，卡塔尔预计短期无法恢复出口..................................................................................35PX&PTA：PTA装置变动增加.........................................................................................................................36BZ&EB：纯苯供应减量，苯乙烯负荷回升...................................................................................................37乙二醇：海内外停车增多，供应收紧..........................................................................................................38短纤：终端开机局部下调...........................................................