沉迷于补贴：改革的理由2026

The Case for Reform A verified reproducibility package for this publication isavailable athttps://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Hooked onSubsidies The Case for Reform The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarilyreflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included inthis work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on anymap in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2026.Hooked on Subsidies:The Case for Reform. World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribu-tion CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following dis-claimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bankand should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall notbe liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following dis-claimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The WorldBank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of theauthor or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component ofthe content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant thatthe use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work willnot infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such in-fringement rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is yourresponsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtainpermission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are notlimited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressedto World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover and interior design: Patrick Ibay, Designed for Humans, Alexandria, VA,https://www.designed-for-humans.com/. Contents ForewordviiiAcknowledgmentsixExecutive SummaryxiAbbreviationsxv Introduction 1 Notes4 Part ISubsidies Essentials: Accounting, Assessing, andUnlocking Reform 1.Reforming Subsidies Could Free up PublicResources and Strengthen Fiscal Sustainability6 1.1.Fiscal Subsidies: Definition and Mapping71.2.A Partial Picture: Toward Better Fiscal Accounting of Subsidies101.3.Subsidies Have a Substantial Impact on Fiscal Accounts in EMDEs131.4.Subsidies Tend to Go Hand in Hand with Higher Borrowing, HigherTaxation, and Lower Investment151.5.Some Subsidies Tend to Undermine the Stabilizing Role of Fiscal Policy,Exacerbating Cyclical Output Fluctuations171.6.Reducing Subsidies Can Decisively Support Fiscal Consolidation Efforts18Notes22References23Annex 1A24References32 2.Weighing the Risks and Rewards of Subsidies33 2.1.Rationale and Appropriateness: Subsidies Can Be the Right Policy ChoiceWhen They Improve Economic Efficiency and Reduce Inequality342.2.Design: Who Gets What, When, and How382.3.Fiscal Costs: Getting a Clear Picture of the Cost of Subsidies Is Critical toSustainable Spending41 2.4.Additionality: Taking Steps to Ensure Subsidies Support theEconomy and Welfare432.5.Implementation: Technical and Institutional Capacity Is Criticalfor Subsidies to Succeed462.6.Evaluation: Subsidies Are More Likely to Succeed When GovernmentsGather Evidence on Which Work and Which Do Not48Notes49References50Annex 2A. The MVPF and the Atkinson-Stern Condition51 3.Paving the Political Path Toward Subsidy Reform55 3.1.A Strategy for Subsidy Reform Success563.2.Credible Compensation Is Critical to Subsidy Reform Success613.3.Stepping up Reform Momentum through Structured Deliberation andStrategic Communication63References69Notes69 Part IISubsidy Reform: Pathways for EnhancedEfficiency and Equity 4.Subsidy Reform Holds Promise for Improving Economic Performance72 4.1.Gains from CIT Subsidies Are Often Uncertain72 4.3.Subsidies Supporting the Transition to Low-Carbon Energy94Notes102References103Annex 4A. The MVPF of the Tunisian Start-Up Program109Annex 4B. Calculation of the MVPF and Net Social Benefit of the R&DTax Credit Program in Canada114Annex 4C. The MVPF for Subsidies Supporting the Transition toLow-Carbon Technologies122 5.Harnessing Subsidies to Reduce Ine