税制改革、补贴与劳动力供给：土耳其的经验教训

Tax Reform, Subsidies,and Labor Supply:Lessons from Türkiye Silvia Domit, Yomna Gaafar, Duncan MacDonald, and Carolina Osorio-Buitron WP/25/187 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Working Paper European Department, Fiscal Affairs Departmentand Research Department Tax Reform,Subsidies, and Labor Supply:Lessons fromTürkiyePrepared bySilvia Domit, Yomna Gaafar, Duncan MacDonald,andCarolina Osorio-Buitron* Authorized for distribution by James WalshSeptember2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Despite recent progress, Türkiye’slow labor force participation (LFP) rate is macrocritical andstands out internationally. This paper examines two channels through which fiscal policy can affect LFP. First,we estimate the impact ofTürkiye’s2022 Minimum Living Allowance reform, which removed tax disadvantagesfaced by secondary earners. Second, we simulate the impact of conditional subsidies onTürkiye’sLFP. Theanalysis was based on four empirical models estimated for Türkiye using labor force survey micro data. Theresults confirmed that: (i) Turkish secondary earners increased their labor supply by more than primary earnersfollowing the removal of tax disadvantages in the 2022 reform; (ii) conditional childcare subsidies lead to a largeincrease in LFP at relatively low fiscal costs; (iii) conditional subsidies can achieve better labor market outcomesand further reduce fiscal costs compared to direct transfers. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Domit, S., Gaafar, Y., MacDonald, D., and Osorio-Buitron, C. (2025).“TaxReform, Subsidies, and Labor Supply: Lessons from Türkiye”, IMF Working Paper. Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................2A.Introduction............................................................................................................................................3B.The Toolkit.............................................................................................................................................4B.1 IMF’s TaxFit Simulation Model..........................................................................................................5B.2 Heckman Selection Model................................................................................................................6B.3 Two-way fixed effects model.............................................................................................................6B.4 Discrete Choice Model......................................................................................................................7C.Data.........................................................................................................................................................8D.Case 1: Minimum Living Allowance Reform.......................................................................................9D1. The Reform.......................................................................................................................................9D2. Estimating Labor Supply Response to the MLA Reform.................................................................10Step 1. Generate simulated gross income for non-working individuals.................................................10Step 2. Generating Simulated Net Income for Working and Non-Working Individuals..........................10Step 3. Computing Individuals' Marginal Effective Tax Rate From Entering Employment....................11Step 4. Estimate Labor Supply Response.............................................................................................12E.Case 2: Childcare Subsidy Policies...................................................................................................13E1. Childcare Subsidy Options..............................................................................................................13E2.Simulation process..........................................................................................................................14Step 1.Estimate the deadweight cost of the childcare policy................................................................14Step 2. Predict employment probability changes for individuals affected by childcare policy...............15Step 3.Estimate the fiscal costs of the childcare policy........................................................................15E3. Simulation Results