Datadog（DDOG）：Airbnb流失？提前应对叙事风险

Peter Weed+1 917 344 8390peter.weed@bernsteinsg.com Price Target DDOG 180.00 USD Datadog (DDOG): Airbnb churned? Getting ahead of narrative risk In March, Airbnb posted what could have seemed like an innocuous blog post, celebratingtheir success rolling out their new “Observability as Code” system called Interferon built onGrafana and Prometheus. But this hides a potential churn for Datadog, who has historicallycalled out Airbnb as one of their reference customers (e.g., customer case study first in 2017here, and as recent as presenting at 2023 DASH conference here). Every year we notice roughly one large global consumer internet customer churns.Forinstance, we saw Delivery Hero move to Grafana within the last couple of years (historically aDatadog customer, now with Grafana). Not to mention use cases like Uber that built a customsolution (that became Chronosphere) to address their needs. These companies all have onething in common: they compete globally vs. local competitors with targeted offerings that areeach unique due to local culture, taste, regulation, etc. As a result, their product ends up aslocalized applications (and sub brands) often on independent tech stacks each generatingmany custom metrics (high cardinality!). These localized applications are often owned / runby separate teams (with limited co-dependency) that use their own observability tools. Onlythe largest most global consumer facing companies have the scale and resources to justifythis operating strategy. The implication: investing in customized observability built on opensource tools can be a business necessity. Does this worry us? No — the profile is very unusual.Our experience is that successfulsoftware has a very clear vision of its buyer, and their needs. Datadog is designed for astandard approach to web / mobile applications that operate on a more common platformfor users wherever they exist globally. This contrasts with the infrastructure required for theglobal consumer internet brands we described above. These churn cases are frustrating, butwe anticipate they remain rare. It is very very difficult and costly for any software or internetcompany to operate many different code bases and tech stacks, so they try to avoid it if theycan. NOTE: we think Datadog saving Coinbase from churn to Grafana in 2022 reinforces howthey fit much better for standard web / mobile apps. Investment Implications APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Datadog Inc Our price target of $180 is an average of DCF (with 11% WACC and 3% terminal growth) and P / Sales (Next 5-8Q) comp multiple.P / Sales (Next 5-8Q) comp multiple of 13.5x is based on a peer-SaaS regression in their relevant >10% OpM Cloud SaaS cohortfrom our “Rule-of-40” based valuation framework analysis. We assume current Cloud SaaS multiples regression line remainsconsistent for 1+ year. RISKS Datadog Inc Downside risks beyond the macroeconomic risks include: increased competition from well-funded competitors in the industry;margin expansion slower than expected due to worse scale leverage in operating costs items; execution missteps or missedearnings expectations could lead to significant downside given the current valuation. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchange