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AFRICAN DEPARTMENT Budget Credibility inSub-Saharan Africa Prepared by an IMF team led by Pablo Lopez Murphy andcomprising Can Sever, Félix F. Simione, and Qianqian Zhang INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AFRICAN DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENTAL PAPER Budget Credibility inSub-Saharan Africa Prepared by an IMF team led by Pablo Lopez Murphy andcomprising Can Sever, Félix F. Simione, and Qianqian Zhang Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Lopez Murphy, Pablo, author. | Sever, Can, author. | Simione, Félix, author. | Zhang, Qianqian, author. |International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title: Budget credibility in Sub-Saharan Africa / Prepared by an IMF team led by Pablo Lopez Murphy, andcomprised Can Sever, Félix F. Simione, and Qianqian Zhang. Other titles: Departmental Paper. | International Monetary Fund. African Department. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2026. | Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN: Subjects: LCSH: Budget—Africa, Sub-Saharan. | Expenditures, Public—Africa, Sub-Saharan.Classification: LCC HJ2179.L6 2026 Acknowledgments The authors thank Costas Christou, Jiro Honda, Linda Kaltani, Andrew Kitili, and Eriko Togo for their invalu-able suggestions and comments, and the country teams in the IMF African Department for their immenselyhelpful inputs that underpin this analysis. The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross-country interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USAT. +(1) 202.623.7430publications@IMF.orgIMFbookstore.orgelibrary.IMF.org Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v A. History of Government Budgets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1B. Why Are Budgets Important?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 2. Budget Credibility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 A. Comparing Budgets and Outturns. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8B. Deviations from the Budgets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9C. A Regional Perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14D. Drivers of Fiscal Deficit and Expenditure Deviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16E. Role of Institutional and Other Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 A. Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27B. Surveillance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 6. What Can Be Done to Improve Budget Credibility in Sub-Saharan Africa?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 A. Summary of the Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30B. Policy Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 BOXES Box 1. Contribution to Fiscal Deficit Deviations by Resource Groups. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Box 2. Electoral Cycles and Budget Deviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .