南非：加强财政框架

SOUTH AFRICA StrengtheningFiscalFrameworks February 2026 Michelle Stone, AnhDinh MinhNguyen, Asma Khalid, Vincent Tang and Matias Acevedo PARTNERS Government of Switzerland (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs–SECO) ©2026 International Monetary Fund HLS/26/019 High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportFiscal Affairs Department High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Report: South Africa: Strengthening fiscal frameworksPrepared by Michelle Stone, Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, Asma Khalid, Vincent Tang and Matias Acevedo TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of theassistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives,findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT: FAD worked with the National Treasury to develop proposals for strengthening SouthAfrica’s fiscal framework and incorporating the management of fiscal risks.Successful implementation ofa fiscal framework incorporating a debt target and numerical fiscal rules would help support consolidationefforts aimed at rebuilding fiscal buffers. By improving fiscal credibility, it would also create the potentialfor ratings upgrades and reduced borrowing costs, supporting confidence and economic growth.Strengthening supporting public financial management frameworks would underpin successfulimplementation. The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Background Despite the authorities’ intention to stabilize debt over many years,publicdebthas increased at one ofthe fastest rates amongst emerging market economies over thepastdecade, reachingover75percentofGDPby 2025.By restoring fiscal credibility andputtingdebton a sustained downward path,South Africacouldrebuild fiscal buffers, reduce borrowing costs, andstimulateprivateinvestment.Without adjustment,negativeshockscouldpush debt onto arapidly increasingpath,undermininginvestor confidence andlimiting room for fiscal policy to support the economy when needed to ensure sustainable delivery offrontline services. Failing to turn the corner on debtalsohas a high cost. Debt servicing costs now account foraroundonefifth ofrevenues.Thesecosts, well above the average of Sub-Saharan Africa ofaround12 percent, andabove the average for emerging market peers, limit room forcriticalspending on social and developmentneeds. Much needed public investment has been outpaced by debt interest costs that have grownfivetimes fasterover the past fifteen years. Recognizing these challenges,the governmenthas reaffirmed its commitment to stabilizing debt, and isconsulting on an appropriatefiscal anchor.At the request of the National Treasury(NT), a team from theIMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) travelled toPretoriain September 2024toprovide advice onstrengthening the fiscal framework. Summary of Findings Operationalnumericalfiscal ruleshelp governments achieve fiscal targetsbysupporting budget decision-making,providing planning guidance and reinforcing objectives, while navigating fiscal risks.Over 100countries across the world have adopted fiscal rules.The adoption and adherence to fiscal rules havebeen shown to promote fiscal sustainability, improve transparency, and signal commitment to financialmarkets.The FAD team worked with NT to develop options for fiscal rules that would constrainrealexpenditure growth and secure improvement in the primary balance until the debt reductiontargetsarereached. International experience suggests that a combination of clear fiscal policy objectives, a publicly articulatedfiscal strategy, an independent fiscal institution that supports accountability,and supportive operationalnumericalfiscal rulescanhelp countries successfully implement fiscally sustainable policies.Well-defined escape clauses offer flexibility and can help to support the longevity of fiscal rule frameworks.Bypermitting deviations from fiscal rules in justifiable circumstances, well-definedescape clauses allow fiscalpolicy to respond to economic shocks with temporary support measures in an orderly way. There may beextraordinary circumstances that justify a temporary breach of the fiscal rules. Summary of Recommendations Setting a credible interim target for debtas a share ofGDP would guide fiscal strategy. There are largegainsto be had from stabilizing debt and developing credible plans to achievedebt to GDP of70percentbytheearly-2030s.This could be an interim target on the way towards achieving further debt reduction and a sustainable long-term debt anchor of 60 percent of