加强爱尔兰财政框架的选择

IMF Working PaperEuropean DepartmentOptions for Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal FrameworkPrepared by Rossen Rozenov, Raphael Lam, Yang Yang, and Yinjie YuAuthorized for distribution by Yan SunJuly 2025IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT:Ireland’s reliance on corporate income tax (CIT) receipts from multinational enterprises,concentrated in a small number of companies, presents significant risks to the budget. The uncertain nature ofthis revenue calls for a robust fiscal framework to safeguard public finances. This paper proposesstrengthening the national fiscal framework by establishing a prudent medium-term debt anchor and anexpenditure rule to guide the annual budget process. We first establish a prudent debt anchor for Ireland bycalibrating CIT shocks and simulating possible debt trajectories. Second, we propose an operational rule basedon multi-year expenditure ceilings. The ceilings are calibrated such as to stabilize debt at the anchor level whileaccounting for the economy’s cyclical position. Although tailored to Ireland, the methodology employed hasbroader applicability for designing effective fiscal rules.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Rossen Rozenov, Raphael Lam, Yang Yang and Yinjie Yu, “Options forStrengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Framework.”IMF Working Paper 25/149H30, H50, H61, H62, H63, H68, C61Fiscal Framework, Debt Anchor, Expenditure Ceilings,Fiscal Reaction FunctionRRozenov@imf.org;WLam@imf.org;YYang5@imf.org;yy1457@princeton.edu. JEL Classification Numbers:Author’s E-Mail Address: Keywords: Options for StrengtheningIreland’s Fiscal FrameworkPrepared by Rossen Rozenov, Rapahel Lam, Yang Yang and Yinjie Yu1The authors would like to thank Santiago Previde for excellent research assistance, and seminar participants in Dublin andWashington, D.C. for their helpful comments and suggestions. 1 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY ___________________________________________________________________3A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________4B. Calibrating a Prudent Debt Anchor _________________________________________________________5C. Calibrating an Operational Rule __________________________________________________________11D. Conclusion___________________________________________________________________________15FIGURES1. Developments of CIT Revenues ___________________________________________________________42. CIT and FDI Variation ___________________________________________________________________73. Simulated Macro Variables _______________________________________________________________84. Simulated Debt Fan Charts: FDI Risks ______________________________________________________95. Simulated Debt Fan Charts: Firm Risks_____________________________________________________106. Debt Trajectories Under Different Expenditure Paths __________________________________________107. Optimal Trajectories ____________________________________________________________________138. Revenue Ratio and Expenditure Growth ____________________________________________________149. Revenue Shock Scenario________________________________________________________________14REFERENCES _________________________________________________________________________17APPENDIXI. Technical Appendix ____________________________________________________________________18oA. FDI Risks _____________________________________________________________________ 18oB. Concentration Risks _____________________________________________________________ 22oC. Fiscal Reaction Function _________________________________________________________ 25 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe paper makes a case for a strengthened fiscal framework for Ireland in view of the challenges from risingglobal uncertainty, concentration of corporate tax revenues and future spending pressures. The methodologyemployed, however, has broader applicability and can be used to inform the design of fiscal rules in bothadvanced and developing economies, conditional on data availability.Over the past decade, corporate income tax (CIT) receipts in Ireland have grown substantially, driven by theactivities of a small number of large multinational enterprises (MNEs). While this has supported strong fiscaloutcomes in recent years in terms of headline numbers, it has also increased Ireland’s exposure tounpredictable revenue swings driven by external shocks or policy shifts. Moreover, Ireland faces significantspending needs to alleviate supply constraints, notably in housing and infrastructure, and address long-termdemographic pressures.To enhance fiscal resilience, an approach to strengthening the national fiscal framework is proposed, designedto complement Ire