耐克中国或首次出现消费者流向李宁与安踏

China (PRC) | Apparel, Footwear &Textiles Nike China May be Losing Consumers to LiNing and Anta, for The 1st Time Conclusion *Event:Nike hosted an earnings call on Apr-1 before HK market opened.CFO guided that China sales to decline by 20% in the fiscal fourth quarter(after 10% decline in the reported quarter). Nike's China guidance was weaker than our previous checks, see report: China Sportswear Observations in Jan & Feb: Nike Could Be The Weak Spot,dated 2026 Mar 3 Detail *Li Ning and Anta may have been taking consumers (hence market share) from Nike inChina:Our analysis of Tmall data suggests that more and more consumers who visited Nikeon-line store but didn't make a purchase instead made their purchase at Li Ning and Antaon-line stores. This likely reduced the traffic conversion rate at Nike's Tmall store. This alsosuggests that Nike's consumer group is increasingly overlapping with that of Li Ning and Anta's,for the first time in history. We attribute this to the consumption downgrade environment. We estimate some consumerscan no longer afford Nike products. In the meantime, the domestic brands (especially Li Ning)offer great value-for-money. We note that, for mainstream running shoes and shirts, Li Ning'sproduct quality is similar to that of Nike's, while Li Ning's ASP is now 20-40% lower than that ofNike's (in a full price store). This may trigger consumers to consider using Li Ning's productsto replace Nike's, in our view. *Shenzhou and Yue Yuen: Negative.Our checks suggest Nike China's orders in calendar9M26 to decline by close to 20% YoY (volume decline and ASP erosions). Among the OEMswe track, Shenzhou and Yue Yuen have larger exposure to Nike China. Related Research Apparel, Footwear & Textiles : OEMs: Challenging Times John Chou * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8792 | john.chou@jefferies.com Boya Zhen * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8774 | bzhen@jefferies.com Anne Ling * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8783 | aling@jefferies.com Apparel, Footwear & TextilesEquity ResearchMarch 31, 2026 Company Valuation/Risks ANTA Sports Products Ltd We use DCF methodology as our primary approach to value Anta shares, as we expect investors to focus on its long-term value creation. In ourDCF model, we derive a WACC of 8.2%, with cost of equity of 9.5%, risk-free rate of 3.9%, equity risk premium of 5.6%, and beta of 1. We assumea perpetual growth rate of 1.0%, in line with our Hong Kong and China consumer sector at 0-2%. Our model factors in our estimated fair valueof Amer Sports. Downside risks include 1) new retail models fail to boost Fila's growth; 2) weaker-than-expected execution on Amer Sports leading to lower cashflow and profit; 3) larger-than-expected losses at Anta's newly acquired brands Descente, Kolon, Sprandi, and Kingkow; and 4) diluted managementresource to manage the transformation of multiple brands. Upside risks include 1) strong performance by new retail formats including the Super Anta; 2) stronger market share gain by emerging urbanoutdoor brands, 3) stronger cost reduction and supplychain efficiency gains. Li Ning Co Ltd We value Li Ning using DCF methodology, as we expect investors to focus on the long-term growth profile. We assume a WACC of 9.50%, withcost of equity of 9.50%; risk-free rate of 3.9%, equity risk premium of 5.6%, and beta of 1.0. We assume a perpetual growth rate of 1.0%, in linewith our Hong Kong and China consumer sector at 0-2%. Downside risks: (1) execution: failure to deliver long-term margin guidance which could potentially trigger de-rating; (2) transitional volatility ingross margin: weaker-than-expected improvement in gross margin is the most significant downside risk to our thesis; this could stem fromdisappointing retail discounts for the retail business and/or lower sell-through contributions from new products; (3) weaker revenue growth,potentially driven by inventory shortage; and (4) weaker-than-expected improvement in store efficiency. Nike Our $110 price target is based on ~39x P/E on our FY'27 estimate. Risks include cost inflation, waning product cycle, and FX headwinds. Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd We use a DCF methodology as our primary approach to value Shenzhou's shares, as we expect investors to focus on the company's long-termvalue creation. In our DCF model, we use a WACC of 7.95%, with cost of equity of 8.94%, risk-free rate of 3.9%, equity risk premium of 5.6%,and beta of 0.9. We assume a perpetual growth rate of 2.0%, in line with our Hong Kong and China consumer sector at 0-2%. Downside risksinclude (1) significant competition leading to price erosion and operating deleverage; (2) heavy volatility in raw material prices leading to heaviervolatility in Shenzhou's gross margin and affecting clients' ability to place orders smoothly; and (3) yield rate issues with new textile capacity thatimpact Shenzhou's profitability and lead to order losses. Upside risks include (1) significant demand acceleration in US and EU that