耐克中国可能首次失去消费者，转而投向李宁和安踏

China (PRC) | Apparel, Footwear &Textiles中国（中华人民共和国）的服装、鞋类及纺织制品行业 Nike China May be Losing Consumers to LiNing and Anta, for The 1st Time耐克中国可能首次失去消费者，转而投向李宁和安踏的怀抱。 Conclusion结论 *Event:Nike hosted an earnings call on Apr-1 before HK market opened.CFO guided that China sales to decline by 20% in the fiscal fourth quarter*事件：耐克在4月1日香港市场开盘前举行了财报电话会议。首席财务官表示，在本财年的第四季度，中国的销售额将下降20%；而上一季度的降幅为10%。 Nike's China guidance was weaker than our previous checks, see report:耐克对中国市场的预期比我们先前的预测要悲观，详情请参阅报告： China Sportswear Observations in Jan & Feb: Nike Could Be The Weak Spot,dated 2026 Mar 3《2026年3月3日发布的关于1月和2月中国运动服饰行业的观察报告：耐克可能成为薄弱环节》 Detail详情 *Li Ning and Anta may have been taking consumers (hence market share) from Nike inChina:Our analysis of Tmall data suggests that more and more consumers who visited Nikeon-line store but didn't make a purchase instead made their purchase at Li Ning and Antaon-line stores. This likely reduced the traffic conversion rate at Nike's Tmall store. This alsosuggests that Nike's consumer group is increasingly overlapping with that of Li Ning and Anta's,for the first time in history.李宁和安踏可能正在从耐克手中夺走消费者——也就是市场份额。我们对天猫数据的分析显示，越来越多的消费者虽然访问了耐克的线上商店，但并没有进行购买，而是选择了在李宁或安踏的线上商店购买商品。这无疑降低了耐克在天猫上的客户转化率。同时，这也意味着耐克的消费群体与李宁、安踏的消费群体有了越来越多的重叠，这是历史上第一次出现这种情况。 We attribute this to the consumption downgrade environment. We estimate some consumerscan no longer afford Nike products. In the meantime, the domestic brands (especially Li Ning)offer great value-for-money. We note that, for mainstream running shoes and shirts, Li Ning'sproduct quality is similar to that of Nike's, while Li Ning's ASP is now 20-40% lower than that ofNike's (in a full price store). This may trigger consumers to consider using Li Ning's productsto replace Nike's, in our view.我们认为，这是由于消费环境恶化所导致的。我们预计，有一些消费者已经无法再负担耐克产品的价格了。而国内品牌，尤其是李宁，其产品具有极高的性价比。我们注意到，对于主流的跑鞋和运动衫来说，李宁的产品质量与耐克相当，不过在同等价格下，李宁产品的单价比耐克低20%-40%。因此，我们认为，消费者很可能会选择使用李宁的产品来替代耐克的产品。 *Shenzhou and Yue Yuen: Negative.Our checks suggest Nike China's orders in calendar9M26 to decline by close to 20% YoY (volume decline and ASP erosions). Among the OEMswe track, Shenzhou and Yue Yuen have larger exposure to Nike China.*神舟和裕元：情况不佳。我们的调查显示，2026年前九个月里，耐克中国在华的订单量同比减少了近20%（这一下降趋势源于销量下滑以及单位售价的降低）。在我们跟踪的各大代工厂商中，神舟和裕元受耐克中国业务的影响最为严重。 Related Research相关研究 Apparel, Footwear & Textiles : OEMs: Challenging TimesMarch 9, 2026Apparel, Footwear & Textiles : China Sportswear Observations in Jan &Feb: Nike Could Be The Weak SpotMarch 3, 2026Apparel, Footwear & Textiles : Sportswear LNY Wrap: Signs of IndustryRecoveryFebruary 24, 2026服装、鞋类与纺织业：OEM厂商面临严峻挑战 2026年3月9日服装、鞋类与纺织业：2026年1月和3月的中国运动装行业动态 2月：耐克可能成为行业的薄弱环节服装、鞋类与纺织业：2025年度运动装行业总结：行业复苏的迹象 2026年2月24日 Apparel, Footwear & TextilesEquity ResearchMarch 31, 2026服装、鞋类及纺织行业股票研究2026年3月31日 杰富瑞 Company Valuation/Risks公司估值/风险分析 ANTA Sports Products LtdANTA体育用品有限公司 We use DCF methodology as our primary approach to value Anta shares, as we expect investors to focus on its long-term value creation. In ourDCF model, we derive a WACC of 8.2%, with cost of equity of 9.5%, risk-free rate of 3.9%, equity risk premium of 5.6%, and beta of 1. We assumea perpetual growth rate of 1.0%, in line with our Hong Kong and China consumer sector at 0-2%. Our model factors in our estimated fair valueof Amer Sports.我们采用DCF模型作为评估安踏股票价值的主要方法，因为我们认为投资者会关注公司的长期价值创造能力。在DCF模型中，我们得出的加权平均资本成本为8.2%；其中，股权成本为9.5%，无风险利率为3.9%，股权风险溢价为5.6%，贝塔值为1。我们假设公司的永久性增长率为1.0%，这一比例与我们对香港和中国消费行业的预期相当，即在0-2%之间。我们的模型还考虑了我们对Amer Sports公司公允价值的相关估算。 Downside risks include 1) new retail models fail to boost Fila's growth; 2) weaker-than-expected execution on Amer Sports leading to lower cashflow and profit; 3) larger-than-expected losses at Anta's newly acquired brands Descente, Kolon, Sprandi, and Kingkow; and 4) diluted managementresource to manage the transformation of multiple brands.潜在的风险包括：1）新的零售模式无法推动菲拉品牌的增长；2）在Amer Sports业务上的运营表现低于预期，从而导致现金流和利润下降；3）安踏新收购的Descente、Kolon、Sprandi和Kingkow等品牌带来的亏损幅度超出预期；4）管理层需要投入更多资源来应对多个品牌的转型工作。 Upside risks include 1) strong performance by new retail formats including the Super Anta; 2) stronger market share gain by emerging urbanoutdoor brands, 3) stronger cost reduction and supplychain efficiency gains.上行风险包括：1）诸如“超级蚂蚁”这样的新零售模式能够取得优异的业绩；2）新兴的城市户外品牌能够进一步提升市场份额；3）成本控制能力得到加强，供应链效率也能得到提升。 Li Ning Co Ltd李宁有限公司 We value Li Ning using DCF methodology, as we expect investors to focus on the long-term growth profile. We assume a WACC of 9.50%, withcost of equity of 9.50%; risk-free rate of 3.9%, equity risk premium of 5.6%, and beta of 1.0. We assume a perpetual growth rate of 1.0%, in linewith our Hong Kong and China consumer sector at 0-2%.我们采用DCF模型来评估李宁的估值，因为我们认为投资者更关注公司的长期发展前景。我们假设加权平均资本成本为9.50%，股权成本同样为9.50%；无风险利率为3.9%，股权风险溢价为5.6%，贝塔值为1.0。同时，我们预计公司的永久性增长率为1.0%，这一数值与我们对香港和中国消费行业的预期相符，即增长率为0-2%。 Downside risks: (1) execution: failure to deliver long-term margin guidance which could potentially trigger de-rating; (2) transitional volatility ingross margin: weake