比亚迪：产品组合优化与海外市场增长，但第四季度盈利能力滞后

Mika Fu+852 2166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com BYD: Stronger mix and overseas gains, yet Q4 profitability lags Q4 earnings came in weaker than expected, dragged partly by soft results at BYDElectronics (BYDE), but EV unit profit also below expectations.BYD reported Q4 revenue of RMB 41.4bn (-23.3% yoy, +20.7% qoq). EV & battery revenue fell 22.9% yoy butimproved 24.8% qoq, while BYDE revenue dropped 30% yoy and 23% qoq. Net income wasRMB 9.5bn (-37.9% yoy, +16.3% qoq), implying a 4.0% net margin (vs. 5.6% in Q4 24 and4.2% in Q3 25). Excluding BYDE, EV & battery net profit declined 34.9% yoy but increased35.6% qoq; BYDE net profit fell 73% yoy and 76.9% qoq. Net profit per car (ex-BYDE) wasRMB 6.8k, below expectations despite better qoq volume and mix, and lower than RMB9.3k in Q4 24 but above RMB 6.1k in Q3 25. Q4 volume fell 11.9% yoy but rose 20.5% qoq.Overseas mix increased to 26.2% (vs. 7.9% in Q4 24 and 21.1% in Q3 25), and premiumbrands (Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, Yangwang) rose to 12.3% (vs. 4.1% in Q4 24 and 8.3% inQ3 25). BYD’s Q4 results speaks to worse-than-expected pricing pressure. R&D capitalization rose sharpely.Overall gross margin was 17.4% (vs. 19.7% in Q4 24and 17.6% in Q3 25), while EV & battery gross margin reached 21.6% (vs. 23.1% in Q424 and 20.6% in Q3 25). Selling expenses increased to RMB 7.7bn due to c.RMB 1.2bnof dealer incentives for 2H recognized fully in Q4. R&D expenses were lower yoy at RMB14.2bn, but capitalization rose sharply, with the rate increasing to 8.6% in 2025 (vs. 1.8% in2024) and 12.8% in 2H 25 (vs. 4.2% in 1H 25). Q4 likely also saw foreign exchange impactas well. Q4 likely also faced FX pressure. While quarterly details aren’t disclosed, FY datashow BYD recorded an FX loss of RMB 1.5bn in 2025, compared with an FX gain of RMB1.0bn in 2024, implying a meaningful swing that likely affected Q4 earnings. Looking ahead.BYD’s China’s EV market share slid to 24.6% in Q4 25 and 19.2% in 2M 25(vs. 33% in Q4 24 and 26.9% in Q3 25) on muted product cycle and intensified competition.Looking ahead, we expect Q1 to still see pressure on the back of weaker volumes and higherBOM costs, but growth momentum should improve from Q2 on new flash-charging modellaunches , continued overseas expansion, and ESS growth.Management will hold earnings conference presentation at 9:30 am Hong Kong Time on March 30th(Monday). We will followup with takeaways from the meeting. EXHIBIT 5:Net profit per car (ex-BYDE) was RMB 6.8k(vs. RMB 9.3k in Q4 24 and RMB 6.1k in Q3 25), belowexpectations despite better qoq volume and mix EXHIBIT 4:Gross margin came in at 17.4%, vs. 19.7% in Q424 and 17.6% in Q3 25 EXHIBIT 6:Premium brands contributed to 12.3% of salesvolume in Q4 25, vs. 4.1% in Q4 23 and 8.3% in Q3 25,thanks to successful product launches of Fang ChengBao EXHIBIT 7:Overseas market represented 26.2% of totalsales volume in Q4 25, vs. 7.9% in Q4 24 and 21.1% in Q325 Source: Company reports and Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 9:R&D expenses reached RMB 14.2bn for Q4 25,implying 6% of revenue, vs. 7.2% in Q4 24 and 7.3% inQ3 25 Source: Company reports and Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 11:BYD recorded RMB 11.3bn operating profit inQ4 25, or 4.7% operating margin, vs. 6.8% in Q4 24 and5.2% in Q3 25 EXHIBIT 10:Administrative expenses increased to RMB6.2bn, or 2.3% of revenue in Q3 24, vs. 1.8% in Q4 23and 2.3% in Q3 24 Source: Company reports and Bernstein analysis INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate BYDOutperformwith price targets for1211.HK at HK$130.00and for002594.CH at RMB120.00(bothunchanged). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY BYD Co Ltd We value BYD based on SOTP valuation. For the EV business, we analysed its valuation with DCF, P/E, and EV/sales approaches.For the battery business, we valued it with DCF, P/E, and EV/EBITDA methods. For handset component and assembly business, weuse current market capitali