海尔2025财年业绩：Q1触底，Q2拐点，H2复苏 - 战术布局

Haier Smart Home Co Ltd RatingMarket-Perform Price Target Haier FY25 Results: Q1 Trough, Q2 Inflection, H2 Recovery -Tactical Setup Haier's FY2025 initially appeared to be an execution miss, but the conference callsuggests peak cyclical headwinds, with 1Q26 as the trough.Revenue grew +5.7%YoY despite US tariffs, China property weakness, European restructuring, and commodityinflation. The miss vs. the street’s forecast now appears transitory rather than structural,given management's outlook and action plans on recovery. Gross margin compression, but a clear roadmap to closing the gap.Gross margincompression (down 110bps YoY) driven by three transitory factors: China Q4 operatingmargin fell 230bps defending share post-subsidy (industry retail down 25%), US marginsdropped 640bps absorbing peak tariff impact (supply chain repositioning now complete),and commodity costs surged 13-15% with mitigation roadmap (hedging, suppliernegotiations, platform optimization) leaving only 0.5-1% residual gap to close. Mgmt explicitly guided Q1-26 as trough with LSD negative revenue growth andprovided concrete 2026 targets:MSD revenue and profit growth (profit > revenue),≥60% dividend payout (‘26-’28), and aggressive buybacks totaling A-shares RMB3bn (60%cancelled), H-shares HKD500mn (cancelled), D-shares EUR100mn (cancelled) boosting EPS~1.9%. They detailed FX headwinds mitigated through locked hedges and working capitaloptimisation, while tariff pressures peak in Q1, suggesting operational improvements. Base case skews positive.Q1 2026 will be difficult as headwinds converge (tariffs peak,commodities elevated, FX losses, China subsidy comparisons), but if Q2 shows 50-100bpssequential margin recovery with China/US normalizing, narrative shifts to "confirmedrecovery" with MSD targets achievable by H2. Risks include Q1/Q2 worse than guided,commodity mitigation failing, China competition persisting, or tariffs/supply chain delayingrecovery. Base case skews positive given transparency on margin bridge, concrete targets,US supply chain de-risked, Europe turnaround complete, emerging markets +13-56%, ChinaDTC at 73%, and HVAC integration providing reacceleration vectors. Our view is incrementally positive asthere could be tactical buy opportunity. Still, wemaintain Market-Perform rating as we are monitoring Q1 results for confirmation of troughguidance, Q2 for 50-100bps sequential margin improvement, and China operating marginrecovery to -1% or better by Q2/Q3, at which point market could reprice from trough tonormalized earnings. From a valuation perspective, assuming a post-results selloff, the stock now trades around9x forward P/E on trough NTM earnings. If management delivers on the mid-single-digitprofit growth target with margins recovering, FY2027 net profit could improve, and applyinga potential12-13x P/E, meaningful upside plus 3-4% dividend yield (boosted by ≥60%payout commitment). DETAILS Management explicitly guided Q1 2026 as the trough with LSD negative revenue growth, then provided concrete2026 targets:MSD revenue and profit growth (profit exceeding revenue), ≥60% dividend payout (2026-2028), and buybackstotalling A-shares RMB3bn, H-shares HKD500mn, D-shares EUR100mn. They detailed FX headwinds mitigated fromRMB700-800mn to RMB300-400mn through locked hedges and working capital optimisation, offset by RMB500mn+interest savings, while tariff pressures peak in Q1 before potentially easing from 10% to 5%, suggesting locked-in operationalimprovements already in motion. Regional performance shows strength beneath cyclical noise: •Europe:Grew 20% with operating margins up 60bps as reported (210bps ex-restructuring) and Q4 margins improving160bps reported (390bps ex-restructuring), with turnaround complete, positioning it as a profit contributor in 2026 •Emerging Markets:Accelerated with South Asia +23%, Southeast Asia +13%, Middle East/Africa +56%, withmanagement targeting India and Southeast Asia as "another GEA" while India achieved the fastest local brand status,Pakistan >40% share, and Malaysia/Vietnam reached #1 positions. •China:Q4's 15% decline is constructive given industry retail fell 25% yet Haier maintained 47%+ leadership in refrigeratorsand laundry while gaining AC share, with subsidy program continuing in 2026 (70-80% offline) and DTC at 73% coverage(130,000+ daily orders bypassing distributors) targeting 100% by year-end 2026, creating a moat Product Performance The large HVAC integration is an offensive move, creating synergies, R&D, and manufacturing via unified procurement. Overseasair conditioner revenue grew ~10% in 2025 with rapid growth expected through 2026-2028 driven by European integratedsolutions and emerging market momentum. Domestic performance in January-February 2026 already outperforms the industrywith share gains and improving profitability. Balance Sheet The balance sheet remains robust with net cash and operating cash flow of RMB26.0bn representing 1.33x net profit, whil