埃斯顿：营收持续复苏，利润率改善缓慢

Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Estun: Continued topline recovery with slow marginimprovement In 4Q25, Estun’s revenue grew 69% YoY, largely due to the low base (Exhibit 2). GP marginwas the bright spot, further improving to 33%, thanks to continued cost reduction. However,OPEX reduction was slower than expected, mainly due to higher than expected sellingexpenses. Management slightly lowered its 2026 revenue guidance to RMB 6.0bn (was RMB6.3bn+), but still expects GPM to improve by 1–1.5 pcts and to reach a 5% net margin. Wethink the 23% YoY topline growth target is stretched, considering that automotive-relateddemand accounts for 30+% of Estun’s revenue (Exhibit 13) and automotive CAPEX in Chinais softening. Close Date31 Mar 2026002747.CH Close Price (CNY)20.03Price Target (CNY)20.00Upside/(Downside)(0)%52-Week Range27.20/15.80ASIAX1,624.90FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (CNY) (M)18,410EV (CNY) (M)21,695 Estun’s domestic robot shipments in 4Q25 grew 17% YoY (Exhibit 3), and Estun continuedto steadily gain market share in China (Exhibit 6). Management is targeting growth throughfurther market share gain and aims to reach a 20% market share in China. However, weremain concerned about the balance between growth and profitability, given the risingcontribution of the system integration business, which has a low and declining margin(Exhibit 11, Exhibit 12), and the rapid increase in key customer concentration (Exhibit 14). Despite a significant share price correction YTD, Estun’s valuation remains around itshistorical average (Exhibit 17 and Exhibit 18). The low-teen CAGR in topline growth, the slowOP/net margin recovery toward a mid-single-digit level by 2029, and the possibility thatChina’s FA cycle may have peaked prevent us from becoming more constructive on Estun. Investment Implications Reiterate Market-Perform. We lowered our PT to RMB 20.0 (was RMB 24.0) by applyinga 31.8 EV/EBITDA multiple to 1-yr fwd EBITDA est. of RMB 599.2mn (was 38.0x to RMB598.2mn). We set Estun’s H-share TP to be HKD 11.50 based on the recent A/H sharepremium. We rolled our PT date to December 2026. DETAILS Note: Estun numbers are shipment in China only and does not include Cloos Europe. ABB robotics is a subsidiary of Softbank Group which is not covered byBernstein. KUKA is a subsidiary of Midea which is covered by Bernstein China Consumer team. Efort and Yaskawa are not covered by Bernstein.Source: MIR Databank, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Estun Automation Co Ltd We use EV/EBITDA multiple as the primary valuation method. Our price target of RMB20.0 (A-share) and HKD 11.5 (H-share)are based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 31.8x against our 1-year forward EBITDA estimate of RMB599.2mn. We set the multiplereferencing previous cycles but adjust for secular or competitive trends that we believe are moving multiples higher or lower acrossmultiple cycles. We set Estun’s H-share TP based on the average A/H share premium. We use DCF as reference for the company'slong-term intrinsic value. As we move along the different stages of a cycle, the time-dependent target price may deviate from theDCF-implied value. RISKS Estun Automation Co Ltd The risks to our view on Estun are mainly associated with China and global macro economy, including industrial capex cycles, tradefrictions, and currency. In addition, the integration of Cloos and realization of planned synergies are important to our thesis andsources of additional risks. The upside risks include 1) faster than expected margin expansion; 2) faster than expected marketshare gain. The downside risks include 1) weaker than expected automation demands in China;