YouGov购物者2026伊朗通胀报告

From headline to household: How the Iran conflictbringsa new costshock to seasoned shoppers Reality meets resilience:Inflation impact expected The Iran conflict is not just a geopolitical headline–it is already reshaping the economics of everydayshopping. It flows directly into European households throughoil and gas, fertilizer, and logisticscosts. Together, this “cost triad” is resetting shelf prices and quietly reshuffling the FMCG basket. Unlike the Ukraine-led crisis of 2022, which primarilydisruptedcommodity flows, the current shock puts pressureon thefoundations of FMCG production simultaneously.Energy inputs, agricultural yields, and transport capacity areall affected at once, driven by instability around the Strait ofHormuz–a chokepoint for oil, LNG, and a substantial shareof globally traded fertilizers. For shoppers, this does not translate into blanketcutbacks. Instead, it triggersselective recalibration,based on how substitutable and “fairly priced” eachcategory feels under rising cost pressure. Thequestion for manufacturers and retailers is notwhether inflation returns, but which categories arestructurally exposedto which cost drivers–and howhouseholdstypically respondto each. Budget / price reflex at the onset Cost pressure caution YouGov Behavior Changedata shows that FMCG pricewariness has settled around40% since the start of thecost-of-living crisis in 2022;meaning that 4 in 10 areplanning to adapt buying behavior because of priceperception.The share of “struggling” households hasnot returned to pre-crisis levels, indicating apermanently more cautious baseline. The situation isespecially precarious in countries likeFinland,Hungary, Romania, and Spain. Bycontrast, budgetcomfort peaked at the onset of the Iran war for a fairshare of households, highlighting a two-speed market. Pessimistic prospects Budget expectations often drive behavior morethan reality, with uncertainty acting as a majorbrake. A growing number of Europeans acrossthe continent anticipate having to make cutssoon. This especially holds true for those thatalready had to cut back earlier. This expectancyacts as a catalyst for budget caution–withhigher price wariness as a telltale early signal. Cost-of-living expectations March ’26 vs. December ‘25 Make pricing decisions based on behavior, not assumptions. The start of the Iran war marks asignificant impact on cost of living. The squeeze is widely felt in the past month. MoreEuropeans struggle to afford especially fuel and energy bills in the past month, alongside early signals for issues regardingthe cost of food in Denmark, Great Britain and Germany. In the latter two countries, pressure is building up across all fourmajor household expenditures. The number of Italians, French and Danish facing cost-of-living issues also rosedramatically, foremost related to mobility costs. The escalating burden is–up till now-mirrored least in Spain. Budget squeeze March ’26 vs. February ‘26 The “triple blow” toFMCG categories Manufacturers face a “triple blow” from both logistics and production inputs, further exacerbated by packaging constraints.How shortages, price hikes and product reformulations translate into basket effects depends on much more than absoluteinflation numbers. Shoppers adapt based on their budgets, needs, and future expectations. High energy-intensivecategories are structurally exposed when oil and gas prices rise, as costs linked to processing,refrigeration, transport and packaging move fast. This is most evident in dairy, frozen foods, chilled meals and beverages,where margin pressure is immediate.Stress multiplies via packaging, logistics and fertilizer.Energy-intensive packagingmaterials quietly erode margins in beverages and personal/home care, whilelong, cold-chain supply routesincreasevolatility for fresh food and meat. Fertilizer disruption amplifies costs in grains, fruit and vegetables, driving downtradingand downsizing rather than immediate category exit. Sacrificed first Optimized and rationalized Must-haves but pressured Excess indulgence, discretionarynear-food, secondary personal careFast volumeloss, penetration drop Meat, alcohol, household care Staples, basic dairy, grains Downtrading, frequency reduction,promo sensitivity, PL shift Substitution, margins and brandsunder pressure Romanian market data highlights howvolume pressure evolvesover time. In 2023, volume losses were primarily drivenby lower volume per trip; by 2025, declining penetration had become thedominant driver, as shoppers increasinglyshun discretionary categories such as napkins, tissues, popcorn, bath foam and scented candles. Category volume loss over time Track how shoppers adapt their purchases in the wake of inflation. YouGov PricePulsedata underlines that price inflation alone does not explain volume shifts. In Germany, somelow-inflation categories such as fish, popcorn, wine and bath additiveslost significant volumealongside high-inflationcategories li