捷克共和国：选定问题

CZECHREPUBLIC SELECTED ISSUES This paperontheCzechRepublicwas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onMarch 4, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. CZECH REPUBLIC SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByEuropean Department Prepared ByThomas Gade and Lukas Boer (both EUR)andJesper Linde (MCM), Lukas Boer and Allan Dizioli (both EUR),andEsha Chhabra (STA) CONTENTS SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC–USING THE INTEGRATEDPOLICY FRAMEWORK (IPF)________________________________________________________3 A. Introduction______________________________________________________________________3B. The IPF Framework in the Context of the Czech Republic_________________________4C. An Empirical Assessment of IPF Frictions for the Czech Republic_________________5D. Policy Tradeoffs Using the IMF’s QIPF Model____________________________________10E. Conclusions______________________________________________________________________16 BOX 1. Robustness Check of FX Market Shallowness____________________________________12 FIGURES 1. FX Market and CNB Participation_________________________________________________52. FX Market Shallowness and Liquidity Indicators__________________________________63. Foreign Assets and Liabilities_____________________________________________________84. Pass-through and Inflation Expectations__________________________________________95. Scenario 1–Global Financial Risk-Off Shock_____________________________________116. Scenario 2–Expansionary Fiscal Policy__________________________________________147. Scenario 3–CNB Balance Sheet Reduction_____________________________________15 References_________________________________________________________________________17 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY LINKAGES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC_________19 A. Introduction_____________________________________________________________________19B.SelectedLiterature on Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions__________________20C.Monetary And Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Czech Republic__________________21 D.Scenario Analysis: The Effects of Persistently Higher Deficits__________________________________25E.Conclusion____________________________________________________________________________________27 References_______________________________________________________________________________________28 BOX 1. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Tensions Defined as the Gap Between Fiscal and Monetary r*__23 FIGURES 1. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Synchronization__________________________________________________222. The Activeness of Fiscal Policy________________________________________________________________233. Monetary Policy under Alternative Fiscal Scenarios___________________________________________27 References_______________________________________________________________________________________28 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC: DRIVERS, DYNAMICS, AND POLICYOPTIONS________________________________________________________________________________________31 A. Introduction__________________________________________________________________________________31B.Structural Drivers of Housing Market Dynamics_______________________________________________33C.Decomposition of House Price Movements___________________________________________________35D.Policy Options________________________________________________________________________________37E.Conclusion______________________________________________________________________________________40 FIGURES 1. Measures of Housing Affordability____________________________________________________________322. Income Growth and Credit Conditions________________________________________________________333. Construction and Housing Supply_____________________________________________________________344. Drivers of House Price Growth________________________________________________________________365. Municipalities in the Czech Republic__________________________________________________________396. Property Taxation in the Czech Republic______________________________________________________40 References_______________________________________________________________________________________42 SCENARIO ANALYSISFOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC–USING THE INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK (IPF) This paper applies theIMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) to the Czech Republicwith the aim ofcontributingtothe use of scenario analysisatthe Czech National Bank (CNB).The paperidentifiessomeshallowness ofFX marketsas the main relevant friction under the IPF. Moreover, while inflationexpectations