尿素周报：工业需求稳步提升
市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1877元/吨（+2）；河南小颗粒市场价1860元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1900元/吨（+10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1890元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤850元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差23元/吨（+8）；河南尿素基差-17元/吨（-2）；江苏尿素基差13元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润300.0元/吨（+10.0）；出口利润2827.3元/吨（-1.8）。 供应端：截至2026-03-29，企业产能利用率88.35%（-3.84%）；企业厂内库存为70.1万吨（-10.8）；港口库存为16.9万吨（+0.2）。 需求端：截至2026-03-29，复合肥产能利用率51.24%（+1.27%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.98%（+6.7%）；尿素企业预收订单天数8.24日（-0.1）。 市场分析 尿素现货出厂报价已达3月指导价，国内正处春耕保供稳价关键时期，尿素现货出厂价稳定为主。淡储3月开始全面投放。受地缘冲突消息影响大宗整体波动加剧，尿素盘面震荡，现货成交放缓。供应端临时故障增加，供应量小幅下降。需求端中部地区返青肥接近尾声，华南西南地区春耕传播进行中。复合肥开工继续回升，前期低价订单走货较好，高价市场略有抵触。三聚氰胺市场情绪较好，出口向好，价格上涨，开工回升，刚需采购。近期工业需求提升，厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅累库。伊朗局势使得国际尿素价格大幅上涨，但当前国内出口配额暂无新消息，海外尿素高价难以有效传导至国内市场。后续持续关注出口动态、淡储投放节奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 策略单边：区间震荡跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险 装置检修动态、淡储投放节奏、出口政策变动 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.................................................................................................
