买入评级：从迷因股到金融超级应用的梦想

We are initiating coverage of Robinhood with a Buy rating and $88 price target.HOOD is levered to rising global retail participation and its rapidly evolvingproduct set is driving increased revenue diversity and client retention. HOOD’s unique ability to attract the next-gen investor positions it as one of the primarybeneficiaries of the ongoing ~$100T generational wealth transfer. At 26x our2027 EPS estimate, we view this as an attractive entry point. ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwisenoted. Growth in Multiple Areas -HOOD's continued development and growth into a financial servicessuper app is the key to driving future profitability and margin improvement. The company continues total platform assets reached $314.2B, reflecting a +68% increase y/y. Net deposit activity has also remained healthy with Feb-26 net deposits of +$5.6B, consistent with recent levels (12mth averageof +$5.7B) supporting cash and deposit balances of $16.5B, a +67% y/y increase. While tradingactivity levels have moderated as 1Q26 has progressed (-19% qtd vs 4Q25), the longer term growthbackdrop remains constructive. As HOOD's product lineup has expanded, so have its revenues andprofitability. Prediction Markets, for example, represent the latest example of this trend, representing 14% of 4Q25 trading revenues vs virtually nothing a year ago. Accelerating Product Roadmap in 2026 -HOOD has been constantly evolving its product offerings has distinguished it vs peers and allowed it to accelerate its diversification of revenues. Non- transactional revenues now make up 41% of total revenues, vs 23% in 2021. Looking ahead weanticipate this migration will continue with non-transactional revenues making up 43% of revenues in both 2026 and 2027. Focused on Profitability -While still in rapid growth phase, the focus on profitable growth hastaken hold in the last 12-18 months. HOOD's total client assets and revenues have expanded 3.3xand 1.9x from 2021 to 2025, respectively, while operating exp's ex-SBC have been roughly flat. We expect HOOD’s adj EBITDA margin to expand to 58.2% in FY27 (vs. 56.4% in FY25), reflecting positive incremental margins. Our FY27 adj OpEx (ex-SBC) estimate of $2.6B implies a ~15% CAGR from'25-'27, compared with our projected ~19% revenue CAGR over the same period.Near Term Trends Mixed -While we are constructive on the long term fundamentals and outlook for growth, ytd retail engagement trends at HOOD have been moderating. We expect 1Q26 EPS in activity levels. However, with HOOD trading at 26x our 2027 EPS est we view the risk/reward isskewed positive to a more normalized operating environment. The Long View: Robinhood Markets Inc Investment Thesis Downside Scenario,$58, -20% Base Case,$88, +21% •Active trader growth accelerates as productvelocity across options, futures and prediction•Retail participation slows, leading to weakerfundedcustomer growth and softer net •Funded customer growth remains steady,supportedby continued Gold adoption and banking products •Trading activity normalizes more sharply, pressuring transaction-based revenues beforenewer products can offset the decline •Net deposits continue to scale, driving growthinTotal Platform Assets and supportingmeaningfullyas banking,retirement andadvisory offerings scale faster than expected •Higherinvestmentspendingtied revenue diversification toward net interest andsubscription streams•Net deposits exceed expectations, supported byinflows and market appreciation product launches, international expansion or compliance limits near-term margin expansion •Trading activity normalizes modestly but is•Incremental revenues flow through at high Catalysts Sustainability Matters [+] Accelerating adoption of Robinhood Gold andsubscription products[+] Successful rollout and monetization of newproducts[+]Potential upside from Trump Accounts ifRobinhood is selected as a trustee[–]Regulatoryactionsimpactingproductmonetization[–] Sharp decline in retail trading activity Top Material Issue(s):1) Product governance & customer protection:Expansion into new asset classes brokerage, crypto, and event-based products.3) Cybersecurity & data privacy:As a digital-first platform with a large retail customer base, safeguarding customer data and assets remains critical.Company Targets/Achievements: Investment Thesis We are initiating coverage of HOOD with a Buy rating and a PT of $88. Robinhood’s commission- free model catalyzed a retail trading revolution, enabling it to capture 27M funded customers and over $314B in total platform assets as of Feb-26. The platform’s frictionless, mobile-first experiencehas attracted a younger demographic (median age ~36) that historically found public markets inaccessible, creating a large cohort of next-generation investors whose wealth should compound overtime. As the company’s product suite has expanded, HOOD has also increasingly attracted wealthierand more sophisticated clients, supporting h