跌至谷底

Bottoming out Target PriceHK$141.10(Previous TPHK$141.00)Up/Downside62.7%Current PriceHK$86.70 Meituan reported its 4Q25 results on 26 March: revenue was RMB92.1bn, up4.1% YoY and in line with Bloomberg consensus, while adjusted net loss camein at RMB15.1bn, at the low end of the RMB15.1bn-16.1bn range guided in thepreviousprofitwarning.Earnings of Meituan’s Core Local Commerce (CLC)business are bottoming out, in our view, as:1)regulatory guidance in the fooddelivery industry is steering the sector toward healthier development; and2)playersin the in-store segment are increasingly focusing on their corecompetencies and categories to drive more efficient expansion.We believe themost intense phase of competition in the local services sector may have passed.While a meaningful earnings recovery may still take time to materialize, ascompetition remains dynamic and macro headwinds may take time to improve,we remain positive on Meituan’s potential to optimize user subsidies and itscontinued efforts to narrow CLC losses.Meituan narrowed its CLC operating China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hkStock Data CLC:FD order and GMV shareshowing recovery.In 4Q25, the CoreLocal Commerce (CLC) segment recorded revenue of RMB64.8bn, down1.1% YoY and inline with consensus, while operating loss was RMB10.0bn,5% better than consensus.For 1Q26, management noted that it is drivinghigh-quality growth in the food delivery business and optimizing resourceallocation by scaling back investment in low-AOV orders. Despite ongoingoptimization of user subsidies, Meituan has seen a recovery in both ordershare and GMV share in 1Q26, driven by a stronger-than-peers recovery inAOV, supported by the favorable holiday season and strong consumer Newinitiatives:acceleration in revenue growth with improvingoperating efficiency.Revenue from new initiatives reached RMB27.3bn in4Q25, up 18.9% YoY, accelerating from 15.9% in 3Q25, supported bybusinessexpansion in Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Keeta.Segmentoperating loss was RMB4.7bn, widening from RMB1.3bn in 3Q25 andexceeding consensus of RMB3.5bn loss, driven by upfront investment inKeeta forbusinessexpansion.For 1Q26, we expect further acceleration insegmentrevenue growth to 20%YoY,with operating loss narrowing Source: FactSet Revision of forecast and valuation Key changes to our 2026E estimatesinclude: 1) we lower our revenue forecast by 3% toreflect Meituan’s strategic shift toward higher-quality growth in the food delivery business;and2)we cut our operating loss and non-IFRS net loss forecasts by 32%/51%, DCF-based target price of HK$141.1 OurDCF-based TPislargely unchanged atHK$141.1(WACC of 11.0%, terminal growthof 2.5%; bothunchanged), translating into22.6x 2027E adjusted PE. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible forthe content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (asdefined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future p