霍尔木兹海峡危机：后续走势如何

Global Markets Research Nomura Pulse Check 24 March 2026 Macro Strategy - Asia ex-Japan Research Analysts Strait of Hormuz crisis: What’s next? Global FX Strategy Craig Chan - NSLcraig.chan@nomura.com+65 6433 6106 Trump said that US has started “productive conversations” with Iran (a “top person”;Bloomberg, 23 March), but this has been denied by Iranian officials and state media so far. Wee Choon Teo - NSLweechoon.teo@nomura.com+65 6433 6107 It is a complicated situation, but which of the following is closest to your viewby end-April(i.e., War Powers Resolution deadline)? Vicky Chen - NSLvicky.chen1@nomura.com+65 6433 6540 US military “boots on the ground”intensifies conflicts; Hormuz stays closed(major risk-off)1. Manthan Shingala - NSLmanthan.shingala1@nomura.com+65 6433 6427 US military “boots on the ground”de-escalates conflicts; Hormuz opens(risk-off,followed by risk-on)2. Trump unilaterally de-escalates, butregional hostility continues; Hormuz staysclosed(risk-off)3. Asia ex-Japan Equity StrategyChetan Seth, CFA - NSLchetan.seth1@nomura.com+65 6433 6986 Trump unilaterally de-escalates,regional hostility reduces; Hormuz opens(risk-on)4.US-Iran ceasefire negotiations materialize;Hormuz opens(major risk-on)5. Cast your vote and instantly see what the accumulated responses say so far. Appendix A-1 This report has been produced by Nomura Singapore Ltd. (NSL), Singapore.SeeDisclaimersfor Nomura Group entity details. Analyst Certification We, Craig Chan, Wee Choon Teo, Vicky Chen, Manthan Shingala and Chetan Seth, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Researchreport accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part ofour compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura Group research is available onwww.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, LSEG.Important disclosures may be read athttp://go.nomuranow.com/research/m/Disclosuresor requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, aportion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report arenot registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA rules, may not be associated persons of NSI, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule Nomura Global Financial Products Inc. (NGFP) Nomura Derivative Products Inc. (NDP) and Nomura International plc. (NIplc) are registered withthe Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association (NFA) as swap dealers. NGFP, NDPI, and NIplc are Distribution of ratings (Nomura Group) The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Group Global Equity Research is as follows: 56% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 36% of companies with thisrating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 0% of companies (which are admitted to trading on a regulated market in the EEA) 42% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 56% of companies withthis rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 0% of companies (which are admitted to trading on a regulated market in the 2% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 0% of companies with thisrating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 0% of companies (which are admitted to trading on a regulated market in the EEA) As at 31 December 2025.*The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Definition of Nomura Group's equity research rating system and sectors The rating system is a relative system, indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock,subject to limited management discretion. An analyst’s target price is an assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock based on anappropriate valuation methodology determined by the analyst. Valuation methodologies include, but are not limited to, discounted cash flow STOCKS A rating of'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of'Neutral',indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of'Reduce', indicates thatthe analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of'Suspended', indicates that the rating, targetprice and estimates have been sus