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A powder keg Tensions remain high, the Strait of Hormuz remains closedand investors try to anticipate the feed through to globalmarkets. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US Read the Research: Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Thinking Macro: ‘60 million Frenchmen cannot be wrong’•Energy Sigma: Snowballeffect•Global Trade: The Middle East supplies more than energy•BDCs Update: The Gates Swing Both Ways PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK On this week’s Thursday Macro call, we will cover the ME Conflict’s implications for Asia. MitulKotecha will be joined by Dennis Wilder, a 36-year CIA veteran who shaped US policy on Chinaunder President Bush and President Obama.Register here to join. Read our latest Barclays Live hubMiddle East Escalation. Barclays Research Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Trending Last Week. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Barclays Economic Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5What are our views across asset classes?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Looking ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Key forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Global Conferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Barclays Research Highlights Markets are pricing a relatively benign macro impact from the Iran conflict. They might be right. "...The most likely scenario – and this is a probability statement, not a certainty – is a conflictthat winds down within weeks rather than lasts months. Oil settles back, but higher than beforeas countries rush to refill drained reserves. Equities recover fully and make new highs. There issome economic damage but it is transitory, more akin to a bad quarter than anything worse.The combination of US political incentives to exit, the military asymmetry, and the historic IEAreserve release all point in that direction..." Energy Sigma: Snowballeffect Thirteen days into the Iran war, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain down to a trickleand production shut-ins in the Gulf countries have ballooned to over 10 mb/d. Assuming thesituation normalizes in two to three weeks from now, we revise our 2026 Brent forecast to $85/bbl. Global Trade: The Middle East supplies more than energy Our analysis of 2.8mn trade corridors across 1.2k products identifies 30 critical products forwhich the Middle East supplies over 10% of global trade value. Beyond energy, exposuresextend to chemicals, construction and agriculture, driven by key reliance on industrial inputs. Note: Based on 2024 data (latest available data point)Source: UN Comtrade, Barclays Research BDCs Update: The Gates Swing Both Ways Two large private BDCs have takendifferentapproaches to addressing heightened 1Q26redemptions. We believe most perpetual BDCs remain relatively well positioned near term tomeet potentially continued elevated outflows, with over $23bn of est. liquidity. Still, BDCspreads likely remain heavy. Trending Last Week •Uncertainty persists and certainly around how long the Middle East escalation will last. Fornow, many investors (and Ajay) appear to be assuming it is relatively short-lived, which helpsexplain why equities (at the index level) have been fairly resilient compared with past oilshocks. AI is still the headliner, and we wait to see how the war plays out. We see AI capexpeaking at >$1trn around 2028, more than $300bn above consensus •Credit yields are at their highest levels in six months, inflation concerns grow, and privatecredit remains an area of vulnerability as large BDCs experience outflows. •If oil were to average $100/bbl in 2026, global growth would be 0.2pp lower and inflation0.7pp higher. With markets more focused on inflation risks than growth shocks, rates pricingis starting to look complacent. All eyes now turn to what central banks say next week. •Energy prices remain thetopic du jour. Fourteen days on, oil flows through the Strait ofHormuz remain severely constrained. Our new 2026 Brent forecast of $85/bbl assumes anormalisation of flows in the next two to three weeks; if disruption lasts four to six weeks,$100/bbl comes firmly into play. In the euro area and the UK, sustained energy prices atcurrent levels would force downward revisions to real GDP growth and upward revisions toinflation, with implications for both fiscal and monetary policy. Against this backdrop, it isworth notin