流动秀：油价上涨，猫头鹰说降息

Oil say hike, Owl say cut 12 March 2026 Scores on the Doors: oil 69.2%, commods 40.8%, gold 17.4%, intl stocks 3.0%, US$1.4%, cash 0.7%, HY -0.4%, govt bonds -0.8%, IG -0.9%, SPX -2.5%, bitcoin -20.0% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“I can't work out what's worse, the oil thing or the credit thing.” Zeitgeist II:“No jobs, no savings, oil up 50%, shadow banking…if Gen Z don’t bail nowshould be quite the rip.” The Biggest Picture: Aug'07 to Jul'08 oil price $70/bbl to $140/bbl and subprimetremors began (BNP/Northern Rock/Bear Stearns); oil peaked Jul 3rd2008, same day asECB hiked 25bps (Chart 2), one of great policy mistakes of all time…74 days laterLehman bust, GFC in full effect as credit trumped oil (collapsed to $40/bbl), ECB forcedto cut 325bps; probability of ECB rate hike by Jun’26 now 75%, and Wall St ominouslytrading’07-‘08 analog. MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: oil tightening financial conditions & Fed cut pricing out (June was100% probability, now 25%); bigger risk for stocks is EPS not CPI; big banks = gluebetween Wall St & Main St and can’t buy cyclicals when banks breaking down (BKX <150–Chart 3). Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com The Price is Right: we suggest fading oil >$100/bbl, US$ (DXY) >100, 30-year USTyield >5%, SPX <6.6k, levels set to provoke war/oil/Fed/tariff policy response to short-circuit Main St risks (EM, Japan/Korea, banks, industrials, semis most vulnerable if levelsfail); best ceasefire buys…Treasuries, China, consumer, small cap; but long war + shadowbank events stagflation is AA playbook. Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Chart2:The 2007-2008 analogECB refi rate (LHS) vs Brent oil price (RHS) Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterestthat could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 13 to 15.12947287 Timestamp: 13 March 2026 01:24AM EDT Weekly Flows: $13.2bn to stocks, $3.4bn to bonds, $0.8bn to cash, $0.2bn from crypto,$0.9bn from gold. Flows to Know: •Bank loans: $2.4bn outflow, biggest since Apr’25 (Chart 14);•HY bonds: $5.0bn outflow, biggest since Apr’25;•EM debt: $3.1bn outflow, biggest in two months;•Korea equities: record $8.9bn inflow;•Japan equities: $6.3bn inflow, biggest since May’13;•Financials: record $3.7bn outflow (Chart 13);•Tech: $0.9bn outflow, 1stin seven weeks;•Healthcare: $1.6bn outflow, biggest since Jul’25. BofA Private Clients: $4.3tn AUM…64.0% stocks (lowest since Jun'25), 18.1% bonds(highest since Aug'25), 10.6% cash; biggest inflow to equity ETFs since Nov'25; in ETFspast 4 weeks, private clients buying Japan, EM debt, municipals and selling bank loans,MLPs, and staples. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: down to 8.7 from 9.2 on equity outflows from tech andhealthcare, big outflows from HY and EM debt, weaker global stock index breadth;“old”BofA Bull & Bear Indicator down to 6.2 from 6.61. BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: next best look re sentiment…March 17thGlobalFMS; surveys taken after prior unanticipated negative shocks (Apr’25 tariffs, Mar’22Russia-Ukraine, Mar’20 COVID, Aug’11 US debt downgrade) saw“bear panic”to buy ascash jumped by >0.6ppt, growth expectations fell by >30ppt, stock allocation fell by>20ppt; if Mar FMS shows cash levels >4%, growth expectations turn -ve, OW stockallocation drops from 48% to <20%....will be first sentiment signs that we close to lows;also watch FMS metrics of credit risk i.e., credit default risk, counterparty risk, liquidityconditions, and bank sector exposure (banks #1 most OW sector in Feb FMS) for signsfinancial system concerns on rise; has not happened yet but these FMS metrics showedearly deterioration starting mid-2007 ahead of 2008 GFC (Charts 5-8…esp. after Aug’07BNP suspension of redemptions on three funds holding subprime mortgages). Trading Vi