气候韧性：房地产和碳排放

CLIMATEWORDSPAUL TOSTEVINANDLUCY PALK RESILIENCEIN CITIES OUR NEW INDEXOF CLIMATERESILIENCESHOWS HOWCITIES AREPREPARING FORTHE COMINGSTORMS City policymakers increasingly understand that, inthe face of a changing climate, doing nothing isn’tan option. That’s the overarching message from ourClimate Resilient Cities Index, which looks at thepreparedness of major urban centres around the world for theclimate-related challenges they face today and those they’relikely to face in future.The background is well known. Since 2000, extreme climate-related events have been happening with alarmingregularity. We’ve seen wildfires in California and floods inDubai. Extreme climate events have become five times morecommon since the 1970s.Our Index focuses on how 23 of the world’s largest, wealthiest and most populous cities are fortifying themselvesagainst climate-related events.These cities attract huge sums in real estate investment; their ability to do so in future may depend on their resilienceto climate-related risks. Climate change adaptation requiresawareness So what did we find? The good news is that nearly every city inour survey is aware of the risks they face, and nearly all haveplans in place to mitigate these challenges.This is important. Climate-related risks are not going away. A high percentage of current building stock was not designedwith such threats in mind. In the near future, a city’s appeal asa destination for investment will depend to some degree onthe extent and effectiveness of its climate-mitigation strategy. ROBERTGODFREYDIRECTOR,SAVILLSINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT The bad news is the breadth of the threats our cities face.When we talk about water, for instance, we could be talkingabout river flooding, rising sea levels or access to drinkingwater. Climate change is a multi-headed monster. It drivesextreme rainfall and severe drought – sometimes in thesame location. The increasingoccurrences ofwildfires, floods andother climate-related Wildfires, landslides and hurricanes have always been athreat to some cities, but climate change is making them morefrequent and more severe. Some cities are built to withstandextreme heat, but others are having to adapt to it, as scorchingsummers become the norm. events demonstrate the direconsequences of inaction. Theseescalating threats emphasise theneed for investment not only in thedecarbonisation and resilience ofthe built environment but also inthe natural capital that sustains life.As we strive to create citiescapable of withstanding climatechange, we must remember thatthe health and robustness ofthriving human communities arereliant on ecosystem services.These services, such as theprovision of clean air, waterpurification and climate regulation,are fundamental to the vitality ofour urban environments. Climatechange, biodiversity loss and theresilience of cities are intrinsicallyinterconnected; we cannot addressone without considering the others.Our approach to addressing thesechallenges musttherefore be holistic,integrating both. Climate risks in real estate to 2050 Our index looks at all these climate-related events andprojects into the future, to reveal the threats cities will beexposed to by 2050.We also look specifically at real estate resilience, including the share of building stock that is resilient, the proportionvulnerable to climate-related hazards and the degree of likelydamage escalation up to 2050.The future view is important because we know that cities can be especially good at dealing with threats they are used to.Tokyo’s world-leading building codes have been refined by ahistory of earthquakes and tsunamis. Cape Town’s “Day Zero”water conservation scheme followed years of declining rainfall. Cities are often good at dealing with the now, but less goodat preempting what might be around the corner. In a rapidlychanging world, they have to do both. To that end, the index is, to some extent, an educationaltool – a disseminator of best practice for the real estateindustry. If a city is getting hotter, wetter or stormier over thenext 20 years, here’s how others have introduced policies andmodified their built environments to mitigate that threat. All to play forWhen the index takes all factors into account, Berlin comes out on top, followed by Toronto, Paris and Madrid. All faceserious climate threats, but a mix of geographical good fortune(they are all inland with no risk from coastal flooding) andplanning mean they are at the lowest risk overall.But there are no winners and losers here, and the index shouldn’t be used as a league table. If anything, we hope it’s acall to action. All cities face real challenges and mostpolicymakers have acknowledged the threat and begun toaddress it. Real estate resilience and carbon There is an elephant in the room. While cities should preparefor the consequences of climate change, they can’t ignore their Methodology: ClimateResilient Cities Index part in causing it. Cities account for 70 per