变革浪潮：亚太地区海运的未来

An Asian Transport Observatory (ATO) Publication Changing Tides: Maritime Transport in Asia Pacific September2025 Contributors: Sudhir Gota, Alvin Mejia, Mel Eden, Adwait Limaye, Benjamin Soco Cover page picture credits: Kinsey Wang (unsplash) Suggested citation: Asian Transport Observatory.(September2025). Changing tides: Maritime Transport in AsiaPacific. Asian Transport Observatory. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14706/01.022.00;https://asiantransportobservatory.org/analytical-outputs/maritime-transport-2025 Disclaimer:The Asian Transport Observatory(ATO)project collects,collates,and organizes data from publiclyavailableofficial,aswellasreputableandpeer-reviewedsecondarysources,whichmay containincompleteorinconsistentdata.ItisimportanttonotethattheATOdoesnotgeneratedata.Moreover,whiletheATOcarriesout Summary Theworld'seconomiccenterofgravityhasmoved.TheAsia-Pacificregion,hometohalftheplanet'speopleandeconomicoutput,is now the pivot of global trade.What happens on its waters—stagnation or progress— Theoceancarriestheworld'sgoods.Roughly80%ofallinternationaltrademovesbysea;formanydevelopingAsiannations,the share is higher still.In 2023,this trade surpassed 12 billion tons.Asian developing nations alone discharged47%of this global volume.The region's dominance is absolute.This is where the world's fleet ismanufactured.In 2024,Asia builtabout 98%of the world's largemerchant ships.Three nations—thePeople'sRepublicofChina,theRepublicofKorea,andJapan—delivered93%ofallnewtonnagein2022.Theportsarehere,too.Asiacontrolshalfoftheworld'sportcapacityandhandlestwo-thirdsofglobalcontainerthroughput.Eightofthetenbest-connectedportsareinAsia. Yet,this aggregate success conceals deep fault lines.Our assessment reveals that the convergent forces ofdecarbonization,digitalization,and geopolitics are remaking the architecture of maritime transport.Thistransformationunfoldsonfiveinterconnectedfronts. First,the technological.The International MaritimeOrganization's mandatefor net-zeroemissions creates anewpathwayfor shipping.Yet the domestic sector,a growing source of both carbon and air pollutants,remainsoverwhelminglydependentonlegacyfuels.Theshapeofthetransitionwilldependontheinterplayofregulation, Thesecondfrontisphysical.Asiaiswarmingatnearlydoubletheglobalaverage.Theregion'sportsrepresentasystemicrisktotheglobaleconomy.Tradelossesfromasingleportfailurecanbe100timesgreaterthanthecostofthephysicaldamage.Theeconomiccaseforresilienceisacalculationofaverteddisruption. Asia-Pacific region, home to half the planet's people andeconomic output, is now the pivot of global trade Thethirdfrontisequity.Adivergenceisclear.Whilehyper-connectedhubsinEastandSoutheastAsiaautomateandexpand,thePacificSmallIslandDevelopingStatesarestillisolated.Connectivitysuffers.Thecostsofclimateinactionaremounting.Inlandwaterways,avastbutneglectedasset,seepassengerservicesdecayfromalackofinvestment. Thefourth front is human.This transition rests on the shouldersof the maritime workforce.The globalmaritime workforceispredominantlyAsian.Theshifttowardautomation,greenfuels,andresilientinfrastructuredemandsaparallelinvestmentinnewskills.Ajusttransitionisessentialtoensurethisworkforceisretrainedandupskilled,notleftbehind.Thisisalsoanopportunitytoaddresslong-standingdisparities,suchasthefactthatwomencompriseamere Thefifthfrontismoney.Thecapitalrequiredisnotpresent.OfficialDevelopmentAssistanceisafractionofwhatisneeded.Private sector investment in ports has fallen sharply over the past decade.Without stable,long-term regulatoryframeworks,private capital remains on the sidelines.As the United Nations Decade of SustainableTransportbegins,thesituationisclear.Thetransitioncanbemanagedwithforesight,oritwillbemanagedbythecrisesthatfollow.Thepathwaysoutlinedinthisreportarenotpredictions.Theyarepossibilities,contingentonthe Contents List of Figures Figure 14: Freight Demand, Trillion Ton-KilometersFigure 15: Fleet Demand (thousand of vehicles)-Domestic Shipping in Asia Pacific Figure 16: Liner shipping connectivity index (2006-2023)Figure 17: Domestic navigation energy consumption, by source Figure 18: Maritime Energy Transition in Asia Pacific Figure 19: Domestic Shipping, CO2 Emissions, Million TonsFigure 20: Maritime transport CO2 emissions using AIS (international + domestic), 2019-2024 Figure 21: CO2 emissions from international marine bunkers (Mt)Figure 22: Trade value at risk Figure 23: Domestic Shipping share in Domestic Transport Air Pollutants Figure 24: Increase in shipping emissionsFigure 25: Shipping emissionsFigure 26: Health burden in Baseline scenarioFigure 27: Average age-all ships Figure 28: Ship recycling Figure 29: Share of water transport in total transport sector employment, 2015-2023Figure 30: Seafarer supply from Asia in 2021 (thousands) Figure 31: ODA in Water TransportFigure 32: PPP Port share in Transport PPP List of Abbreviations AIIBAsia Infrastructure Investment BankADBAsian Development BankATOAsian Transport O