PFR基础：估算潜在的财政节省（英）2026

PFR Fundamentals ESTIMATING POTENTIALFISCAL SAVINGS AUGUST2025 World BankEconomic Policy Global DepartmentFiscal Policy © 2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failureto use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes andother information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status ofany territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean theWorld Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofThe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this workmay be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Herrera, Santiago, and Hironobu Isaka. 2025.PFR Fundamentals: EstimatingPotential Fiscal Savings. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Contents About the Notes and AcknowledgmentsvAbbreviationsvi Section 1Introduction 2.1.The Wage Bill52.2.Pension Payments8 Section 3 3.1.The Optimal Level of Public Capital and the Investment Required to Achieve It113.2.The Technical Efficiency of Capital Spending19 Identifying Savings on Social Protection and Labor Programs21 Section 5Identifying Savings in Goods and Services Use23 Section 6 Presenting an Analysis of Potential Fiscal Savings in aPFR Chapter26 6.1.Selecting a Country of Interest266.2.Creating Charts to Illustrate Potential Fiscal Savings276.3.Completing the Analysis27 Conclusion Appendixes A. Estimating the Structural Component of Spending34B. Excess Public Investment Estimates43C. Macroeconomic Model Specifications45D.Means Tests by Income Group50E. Definitions and Sources of Variables53 References 55 About the Notes andAcknowledgments PFR Fundamentalsis a series of analytical and how-to notes prepared by the FiscalPolicy Unit to assist task teams in preparing and implementing Public Finance Reviews(PFRs). This Note was prepared by Santiago Herrera and Hironobu Isaka. Overall guidancewas provided by Emilia Skrok. The authors gratefully acknowledge comments fromEduardo Olaberria, John Francois, Ulrich Ruch, Julio Velasco, Emilia Skrok, FernandoBlanco, and Brad Larson. Abbreviations AEadvanced economiesARDLautoregressive distributed lagASPIREAtlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and EquityCOLScorrected ordinary least squareEMEemerging market economiesGDPgross domestic productICTinformation and communications technologyLIClow-income countriesPFRPublic Finance ReviewsPMGpooled mean group Introduction This Note describes methods for estimating potential fiscal savings across fivespending categories—the wage bill, pension payments, capital spending,purchases of goods and services, and social protection spending. The primarymethodology compares a country’s spending levels to specific benchmarksderived from cross-country data, highlighting areas in which the country in questiondeviates from the norm. Each expenditure category has its own benchmark, which canbe interpreted as the amount of spending that would be expected for a given countrybased on its development level, the composition of its workforce, the productivity ofcapital, and other structural factors. This top-down macroeconomic approach shouldbe complemented by a cost-benefit analysis at the project level, a cost estimate forspecific public services at the activity level, or another bottom-up approach, with thecombined results broadly indicating an efficient level of spending. The five spending categories included in this Note cover almost 75 percent of totalspending in emerging market economies (EMEs) and low-income countries (LICs)(table 1.1).[1]The benchmarks for different categories provide a useful tool for countryeconomists to identify areas for more detailed analysis. The initia