估算尼日尔的潜在产出：尼日尔（英）

Estimating PotentialOutput in Niger Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR) SIP/2025/041 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on December 17, 2024. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/26. 2025APR IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Estimating Potential Output in NigerPrepared by Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR) Authorized for distribution by Antonio David.April 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on December 17, 2024. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/26. ABSTRACT:Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent with a structurally significantcontribution of labor and peaks of growth associated with higher investment in physical capital. Growth in Nigeris, however, constrained by weak productivity, limited structural transformation, and inadequate economicdiversification, with downside risks stemming mainly from regional insecurity and adverse climate shocks. Keyfactors that could boost economic growth in Niger include investment in human capital, the development of theextractive sector and agro-industrial value chains and the diffusion of digital technologies. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Amouzou Agbe Guy Morel Kossivi. 2025. “Estimating Potential Output in Niger”,IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/041). Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund Estimating PotentialOutput in Niger Prepared by Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR)1 NIGER Approved ByThe AfricanDepartment Prepared By Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe (AFR) CONTENTS ESTIMATING POTENTIAL OUTPUT IN NIGER ________________________________________ 2 A. Motivation and Background _________________________________________________________ 2B. Sectoral Growth Trends and Contributions to Growth _______________________________ 3C. Potential Output and Output Gap Estimations _______________________________________ 5D. Downside Risks to Growth __________________________________________________________ 12E. Policy Options and Conclusions _____________________________________________________ 13 FIGURES 1. Contributions to Real GDP Growth in Niger __________________________________________ 42. Sectoral GDP Trends, by Branch of Activity___________________________________________ 63. Sectoral GDP Trends, Resource Versus Non-Resource Sector ________________________ 74. Output Gap Estimates ________________________________________________________________ 85. Potential Growth Rates _______________________________________________________________ 96. Contributions to Potential Growth __________________________________________________ 117. Risk Factors to Growth in Niger _____________________________________________________ 12 References _____________________________________________________________________________ 15 APPENDICES I. Cobb-Douglas Production Function and Growth Accounting________________________ 17II. Overview of Univariate Statistical Filters _____________________________________________ 18 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL OUTPUT IN NIGER1 Economic growth in Niger is essentially driven by the agriculture and services sectors, with favorableprospects for the industry sector due to the start of oil exports in 2024. Potential growth is estimated ataround 6 percent with a structurally significant contribution of labor and peaks of growth associatedwith higher investment in physical capital. However, growth is constrained by weak productivity,limited structural transformation, and inadequate economic diversification. Key factors that couldboost economic growth in Niger include investment in human capital, the development of theextractive sector and agro-industrial value chains and the diffusion of digital technologies. However,downside risks to real and potential growth stems mainly from regional insecurity and adverse climateshocks, highlighting the need for effective climate, disaster and security risks management. A.Motivation and Background 1.Potential growth is a critical determinant of a wide range of macroeconomic anddevelopment outcomes.Potential output and output gap estimates are frequently used tocalibrate macroeconomic policies. Indeed, sound macroeconomic policies on growth cannot betaken without being grounded in a firm understanding of potential growth (Celik et al., 2023). Theimportance of estimating potential output lies in its ability to provide policymakers with abenchmark for evaluating economic performance and identifying areas of underutilization.Estimating potential output in Niger helps policymakers identify both conjunctural and structuralfactors limiting growth, calibrate macroeconomic policies, and design reforms aimed at