如何设计和审查新兴市场和发展中经济体的通胀目标（英）2026

N O T E SN O T E S How to Design and Review InflationTargets in Emerging Market andDeveloping Economies Thomas J. Carter, Gunes Kamber, and Julia Otten How to Design and ReviewInflation Targets in EmergingMarket and DevelopingEconomies Thomas J. Carter,Gunes Kamber, and Julia Otten © 2026 International Monetary FundCover Design: IMF Creative SolutionsCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names:Carter, Thomas J. (Economist), author. |Kamber, Güneş, author. |Otten, Julia, author.|InternationalMonetary Fund, publisher.Title:How to design and review inflation targets in emerging markets and developing economies/Thomas J. Carter,Gunes Kamber, and Julia Otten.Other titles:How-To Notes.Description: Washington,DC :International Monetary Fund, 2026. |Mar.2026.|Note/2026/04.|Includesbibliographical references.Identifiers:ISBN:9798229041775(paper)9798229041843(ePub)97982290418292(webPDF)Subjects:LCSH:Inflation (finance)—Emerging markets. | Inflation (finance)—Developing economies.Classification:LCCHG229.C3 2026 DISCLAIMER:How-To Notes offer practical advice from IMF staff members to policymakers on important issues. The viewsexpressed in How to Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, itsExecutive Board, or IMF management. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Carter, Thomas J., Gunes Kamber, and Julia Otten. “How to Design and Review Inflation Targets in Emerging Marketand Developing Economies.” IMFHow-ToNote2026/04, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesPO Box 92780Washington, DC 20090, USATel: (202) 623-7430 | Fax: (202) 623-7201publications@IMF.orgeLibrary.IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.org Contents Abbreviations.......................................................................................................................................................4How to Design and Review Inflation Targets in Emerging Market and Developing Economies.........................................5Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................................6Setting the Inflation Target.............................................................................................................................................9Level of the Inflation Target........................................................................................................................................9Other Dimensions of the Inflation Target.................................................................................................................17Reviewing the Specification of the Target.....................................................................................................................23The Review Process...................................................................................................................................................23When Might Target Changes Be Warranted?...........................................................................................................25Special Considerations Regarding Disinflation Programs..............................................................................................29Endnotes............................................................................................................................................................................32 References.........................................................................................................................................................................37 Box Box 1. Sustained Real Exchange Rate Appreciationthroughthe Balassa–Samuelson Effect and Other Channels:Implications forInflation Targets inEmerging Market and Developing Economies.........................................................16 Figures Figure 1. Costs of Trend Inflation Noted by Policymakers inEmerging Market and Developing Economiesand AdvancedEconomies........................................................................................................................................................................12Figure 2. Benefits of Trend Inflation Noted by Policymakers inEmerging Market and Developing EconomiesandAdvanced Economies.......................................................................................................................................................15Figure 3. Benefits of Headline-Based Targets Noted by Policymakers inEmerging Market and Developing Economiesand Advanced Economies................................................................................................................................................18Figure 4. Changes to Different Dimensions of Countries’ Inflation Targets, per Year of IT.............................................26Figure 5. Number of Target-Level Adjustments..................................