2026年全球航空可持续发展展望

W H I T EP A P E R Contents 1 Ambitious pragmatism9 1.1 Overall progress in 20259 1.2 Expectations for 20269 2 Technology trends14 2.3 Access to clean energy and the role of hydrogen forairports and flight operations17 2.4 Developments in aircraft powertrains – hydrogen, hybridand eVTOL19 3 Policy and geopolitical trends21 3.1 Energy security could boost fossil-free fuels21 3.2 SAF policy22 3.4 Implementation of CORSIA28 3.5 Trade tensions, tariffs and export controls affect aviationsupply chains28 3.6 Commodity and feedstock flows30 4.1 Passenger and cargo trends: uneven growth acrossregions33 4.2 Aircraft and engine manufacturing bottlenecks35 4.3 SAF affordability and price37 4.4 SAF partnerships, offtakes and voluntary demand40 4.5 Fuel refining activity, oil markets and overall implications44 Acknowledgements61 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated and ©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopying Foreword by theInternational Civil Juan Carlos SalazarSecretary General,International Civil Aviation Aviation stands at a decisive moment. Withpassenger and cargo volumes continuing to rise,the sector must sustain growth while acceleratingits transition towards net-zero carbon emissions.In this context, theGlobal Aviation Sustainability It is equally critical to ensure that all regions canparticipate in this transition. ICAO’s Assistance,Capacity-building and Training (ACT) programmesand the Finvest Hub are supporting states intranslating commitments into bankable projects,and bridging policy ambition with implementation The strength of this report lies in its emphasis onimplementation. It underscores that sustainableaviation is not solely a technological challenge,but a system-wide transformation requiringpolicy coherence, market certainty, infrastructurereadiness and sustained public-private This report reinforces a central reality: the path tonet-zero aviation will be shaped not by any singleactor, but through coordinated action amonggovernments, industry and finance. By presentingboth opportunities and risks associated with In 2025, ICAO’s 42nd Session of the Assemblyreaffirmed the sector’s collective commitment to thelong-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The priority now isexecution. Achieving this goal will require the rapidscale-up of cleaner aviation energy, major investmentin new supply chains, and globally aligned regulatory As the window for climate action narrows, ICAOwelcomes this contribution from the WorldEconomic Forum and its aviation communities.Through sustained cooperation and clear globalframeworks, we can convert ambition into Foreword byAirports Council Justin ErbacciDirector General,Airports Council In its latestAirport Traffic Forecasts 2025-2054, ACIWorld predicts global passenger traffic will reach 10.2billion passengers in 2026 and 18.8 billion by 2045,confirming sustained long-term demand growth andunderscoring the role of aviation — and airports inparticular — as sources of stability that enable trade, With the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) leading the collective ambition of states,these efforts help the sector to remain focusedand move decisively forward. Yet the path aheadremains uneven and the challenges are significant.The next five years will be critical in keeping airtransport on track for decarbonization.1This will At the centre of the aviation system, airports aremore than physical infrastructure; they serve aseconomic anchors and community gateways,sustaining supply chains, supporting jobs SAF is central to all decarbonization pathways andmust remain a primary focus of action. While thesteady growth of the SAF market is encouraging, amuch faster scale-up is needed. At the same time,the aviation sector, including airports as energy and In this context, geopolitical shifts, social change,climate impacts and broader uncertaintiesshould not slow progress, but instead serve asa catalyst to reaffirm ambition, accelerate actionand embrace the transformations needed to builda resilient, sustainable and innovative aviation These decarbonization efforts must go hand-in-hand with adaptation and resilience, as climateimpacts are already increasingly affecting airportinfrastructure and operations. Meeting futuredemand and shaping a next-generation, future- The air transport sector continues to make progresstowards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 andit is important to recognize how much has alreadybeen achieved. As thisGlobal Aviation SustainabilityOutlook 2026demonstrates, airports worldwide aredelivering concrete results: expanding sustainableaviation fuel (SAF) distribution, i