全球可持续发展2026年展望：做好准备

Equities GlobalGlobal Sustainability Victoria KalbAnalystvicki.kalb@ubs.com+65-6495 4584 Our ESG watchlist for 2026: the whole is greater than the sum of the parts Our annual key topics list typically remains fairly constant. Of that list, this year we arewatching System Resilience & Inequality particularly closely. A reminder: ESG risks oftencross-connect andmultiplier effectscan be significant. See Figure 2 & analysis of eachtopic on our list from p.16 (also, US, APAC, Japan 2026 ESG Outlooks). Annabel WillderAnalystannabel.willder@ubs.com+44-20-7568 4252 What price resilience? Resilience, alongside Systems Thinking, is a key ESG concept that we return torepeatedly. We see two critical questions to address. First, what is any given company's"plan b" (and c, d, & e) when assessing any number of (potentially) highly disruptivesustainability-related risks? Anything from supply chains & geopolitical risk, to physicaleffects of climate change, to contract "disruption" (ref: US offshore wind intervention,China critical material export restrictions), to whether just in time inventory becomes justin case inventory, and much more. The second is to assesshow resilient companiesare in terms of balance sheet, cash flow, and overall returnsin an environmentwhere higher "resilience spend" becomes necessary. And, when addressing bothquestions, asking if you think your assumed risk premium is correct (or, worse, howmeaningful is it in the first place in this environment)? Alisa DudchakAnalystalisa.dudchak@ubs.com+44-20-7567 0844 Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFAAnalystshneur.gershuni@ubs.com+1-212-713 3974 Phineas GloverAnalystphineas.glover@ubs.com+852-3712 3917 Leigha MiyataAnalystleigha.miyata@ubs.com+81-3-5208 7101 Resilience spend analysis: extreme weather pushing addition capex We looked at US utility capex against extreme weather events & cost, inflation, andelectricity demand. Using our novel multifactor resilience spend model, we've identifieda direct, quantitative relationship between increasing count and cost of US naturaldisasters and predictive US utility distribution capex spend (p.23). We anticipatecontinued growth in resilience spend to mitigate extreme weather impact. Lydia BruntonAnalystlydia.brunton@ubs.com+61-2-9324 2172 Why Social mayreallymatter this year (even to non-ESG people) Jarvis LamAnalystjarvis.lam@ubs.com+852-2971 7701 We see potentiallysignificant market impactin civil society actions around inequality,and any resulting regulatory responses. For example, banning institutional investorsfrom owning US homes. On AI, we are closely watching protest activity provingimpediments to data centre rollouts. A related basket of considerations that arealreadyimpacting political and operational stabilityand may further impact social licenseto operate include: job stability concerns in relation to AI, mental health impact of socialmedia and tech (ref: Aus social media ban), and more. Kathryn GravesAssociate Analystkathryn.graves@ubs.com+1-212-713 4871M Sustainability continues to drive capex and returns Politicisation of ESG has slid a bit on our list of "noisiest" factors for the year, notbecause it's gone away (it hasn't), but because we think: 1) it's now (mostly, see p.8)baked into expectations, & 2) we are seeing a combination of more robust ESGprocesses,more embedded integration,and a recognition of sustainabilityfundamentals driving returns, meaning we think "Sustainability" is a less obvioustarget than it was at the height of the bubble. In the absence of any appreciableevidence to the contrary (we're watching bubble risk as is everyone else), we expectpower demandand related system stability concerns to remain key thematics thathappen to also be driving "green" solutions (compounded by the absence of viablealternatives). Within that:energy storagein particular (& not just Li-ion batteries),nuclear, solar(w/storage),anything relating to grids. Also, Resilience Spend, asabove. We aim to capture this and other significant investment drivers on a stock-levelbasis in our EMEA, US, APAC China & Latam ideas lists. Contents Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Victoria KalbAnalystvicki.kalb@ubs.com+65-6495 4584 Our view on the (possibly) "noisiest" ESG factors this year . . . . 6 Annabel WillderAnalystannabel.willder@ubs.com+44-20-7568 4252 ESG topics watchlist for 2026. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 System stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Inequality: Is this year different? We think so. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Defence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Physical risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Politics & Geop