从触屏点击到视线交互：AI赋能眼镜挑战手机主导地位

Global Tech / Lux FromTap toBlink:when AI boostsglasses vs phones Global ◆AI supportsnew form factors: ergonomics, tech stackandhealth challengesanalysed to assesssmart glassespotential Nicolas Cote-Colisson*MD, Head of Global Tech PlatformsHSBC Continental Europenicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com ◆We revise up2040e TAM forsmart glasses;ESLX benefitsfrom Meta’sR&D, competitionbulking up Davey Jose*Senior Global Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bankplcdavey.jose@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 1489 ◆UpgradeESLXto Buy(from Hold),liftTP13%toEUR340;retain Buy(TPUSD905)on Meta, Hold (TP USD250) on Apple Anne-Laure Bismuth*Global Consumer AnalystHSBC Bank plcannelaure.bismuth@hsbcib.com From Tap (smartphones) to Blink (smart glasses):AI’sLarge Language Models(LLMs)supportreal-time conversation. This mode opens opportunities for users toeasily access information and services without handlinga smartphone. Forwearables, including smartglasses to progressively displace smartphones, betterergonomicandtech, but also reassurance on health and social aspectsare required.We analyse these in detail. In this report, we alsoreflectonaGoogle Glassuser Erwan Rambourg*Global Head of Luxury & ConsumerHSBC Bank plcerwanrambourg@hsbc.com Akshay Gupta*, CFAGlobal Luxury & Consumer AnalystThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedakshay.gupta@hsbc.com.hk We lift oursmart glasses2040eTAM base caseby33% tocUSD200bn: Paul Rossington*Senior Global TechPlatforms AnalystHSBC Bank plcpaul.rossington@hsbcib.com Earlysuccess of the latest Meta glasses leads us to revisit both our market volumesand average selling price (ASP) assumptions.Competitors are joining Meta andEssilorLuxottica(ESLX)in their efforts to create a new computing platform, includingAlibaba,XReal, Xiaomi,or Baidu to name a few.Wewould expectApple, Samsungor Amazontojoin the racein 2026-27.Google’s Android XR could support some Charlie Rothbarth*Global Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank plccharlie.rothbarth@hsbc.com Mohammed Khallouf*, CFAGlobal TechPlatforms AnalystHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCmohammed.khallouf@hsbc.com+971 4 509 3337 ESLXupgradedto Buyon a higher TP ofEUR340, Meta (Buy), Apple (Hold): Weraise ourTPon ESLX to EUR340 (from EUR300) on the back of: (i) a 1% and2% increase in our EBIT estimates in 2026e and 2027e and (ii) DCF rollover by oneyear. Our target priceimplies c23% upside, we upgrade to Buy(fromHold). Weretain a Buy rating on Meta: it can play a major role in this new computing platformand leverage its services with top-end hardware. We seeApple(Hold)in a position to Sonam Chamaria*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualifiedpursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report:HSBC Continental EuropeView HSBC Global Investment Research at: Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. AI LLMs can turn a pair of glasses into a powerful form factor:real time voice conversationwith AI, in-frame camera for contextual information: these features open the potential for a widerange of services. After 30 years of loyal services, first offering voice and then digital services, What will it take to go from Tap to Blink?We consider ergonomics, usages and current/futuretech stack to compare smartphones and smart glasses.While we think it is difficult to cometoafirm conclusion on replacement, our analysis shows a strong case for smart glasses to displacesmartphones progressively in the medium to long term (seetable below). We also reflect on a 2040smart glassesTAM forecast up:2025 saw a flurry of new models and we expect to seemore in 2026-27 including from major tech players, includingApple, Amazon or Samsung, with New2040eTAM ofcUSD200bn Alphabet focusing on its XR software to support partnerships (page4). On the back of thesuccessof Meta’snew range of smart glasses we have increasedour forecasts forbothvolumes and average selling prices. Our smart glasses TAMnow reachescUSD200bn in 2040under our base case(+33% vs previous forecast). ESLX is still a clear leader in the market(70% market share involume,December 2025e)but competitioncouldtake 80% share by EssilorLuxottica: upgrade toBuy (from Hold), increased TP to EUR340 (from EUR300) Our higher TAM translatesinto higher smart glasses volume for ESLXto35m units in 2030 (vs18m units) and 57m units in 2040 (vs 48m).ESLXbenefits from itsvertically integratedoperatingmodelwhich spans fromproduction to distribution,but also witha large portfolio of attractivebrands (such as Ray-Ban, Oakley, Supreme).Itshould continue toprovidea competitiveadvantageto the group despite the increase in competition.Metacanplay a major role inbuilding Moremodels coming out, bullishcomments from ESLX and Meta Competitionisjoining ESLXandMeta… The smart glasses market has been very activesince we first wrote on this topic in Se